The SA Reserve Bank monetary policy review released this week showed that the Bank expects the economy to return to 2019 levels only after 2022. But I think the Bank may be too optimistic given the structural constraints to economic growth and uncertainty about the planned fiscal consolidation path by the Treasury.

There are three main reasons why the recovery in SA’s growth to 2019 levels will likely take longer than the Reserve Bank is expecting. Most of the reasons are domestic but there is one that is out of domestic policymakers’ control: the pace of our trading partners’ recovery...

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