CHRIS GILMOUR: Trajectory of large SA Inc stocks remains poor
Barring an escape by the economy from its low-growth, local investors are likely to still prefer US equities
I am often asked my opinion on the future direction of the JSE all share index (Alsi), to which I invariably reply that its best days are behind it and unless SA can once again experience some strong, sustained economic growth, it’s likely to stay that way. Though the US equity market is expensive, it has rewarded investors handsomely over the years and all other things being equal, that situation seems likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.
Since June 2014, when the Alsi was at 52,060, the market has largely gone sideways, punctuated on the upside by the “Ramaphoria-led” bounce in January 2018, and on the downside by the Covid-19 pandemic-induced sell-off in March 2020. ..