ISAAH MHLANGA: Hope for a V-shaped recovery, but prepare for W or even L
If policymakers use everything in their toolboxes now, will there be anything left in case of a far worse scenario?
Economic statistics could become unreliable across the world due to the various lockdowns’ effect on contact surveys by statistical agencies and the inaccessibility of households and firms.
The pace of change in the economic environment is unprecedented, such that if one forgets to press the send button for a day after a forecasting exercise that forecast will be outdated and require revision. With this fast-changing economic environment, combined with unreliable economic statistics, forecasting will move from difficult to less useful and perhaps dangerous for both policymakers and business leaders. A scenario analysis approach could be more useful to manage the risk going forward...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.