All the right decisions always get made, eventually. The key question for 2020 is if the right decisions will be made before the cliff edge, or at the bottom. The cliff is partly Moody’s but also more generally the impact on growth and unemployment from not making the right decisions as business sentiment gets glued to the floor.

The problem next year is the right decisions will get harder as political contestation increases into the ANC’s national general council and as the centre frays, after a downgrade and calls for fiscal and monetary stimulus boil over. Three particularly crucial broad sets of decisions must be made.

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