The near-total endorsement of the Treasury’s growth plan by the ANC is a victory for finance minister Tito Mboweni and all right-minded South Africans, but nobody is rushing to revise up their growth forecasts, the rand is not rebounding, and bond yields aren’t dropping.

Not even Mboweni, who was delighted by the outcome of the party’s national executive committee (NEC) meeting last week, will be hiking his growth forecasts in his medium-term budget on October 30. It will be significantly worse than the February budget and is unlikely to show economic growth recovering to 2% before 2022, from about 0.5% now.

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