From Michael Harris of Price Action Lab in a Forbes interview:

There are some chart pattern traders who claim that although most patterns fail if they can be right 20% of the time they can profit because they make on the average a lot more than they lose, ie, the payoff ratio is high. The first problem with this claim is that a low win rate exposes the trader to a large risk of ruin. Even when tossing a fair coin a long streak of tails is possible before the relative frequency starts converging to 0.5. Now imagine what can happen if the coin is biased 80% tails: a long sequence of losing trades is more than certain...

Subscribe now to unlock this article.

Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).

There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.

Cancel anytime.

Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.

Speech Bubbles

Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.