There is a lot of having-cake-and-eating-it going on in the SA commentariat and market commentary. It is quite nauseating. A positive story is always required even when the facts are tenuous. First, 60% for the ANC was required for reform, now actually having less is better. The reality is that the election results matter little for what comes next. The real question now at the heart of what comes next is this — what does the neo-patrimonial majority within the ANC’s national executive committee do? This is all that matters. Currently this disparate grouping is split, but with a sufficient number supporting President Cyril Ramaphosa to bring him to power at Nasrec and then bring him to the presidency. They will stick with him, and their numbers will grow if he can deliver an electoral narrative in the next five years through the 2010 local election to the 2024 national elections that keep the ANC in power and rent extraction running. However, equally as the taps get turned off and...

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