STEVEN FRIEDMAN: All the signs point to ANC rule in eight out of nine provinces
It is very difficult to see the ruling party being forced out of government anywhere
At the end of what is repeatedly described as this country’s most competitive election yet, the ANC will remain in government nationally and in eight of nine provinces. This claim is based not on a new opinion poll or an analysis of by-elections. It is, rather, the only conclusion that flows from remarks by EFF leader Julius Malema last week. He told reporters he was open to coalition talks with the ANC but not the DA, which he described as “hostile” and “insulting” because it linked the EFF to the VBS banking scandal. While politicians often don’t mean what they say about coalition plans, it seems highly likely that the EFF will not make the type of arrangement with the DA that has enabled the latter to govern some municipalities. Even if Malema puts aside his anger at the DA, it remains hard to see how the EFF could justify to its voters an arrangement with a party whose position on land is the polar opposite to the EFF’s. If the EFF does stick by this intention, the ANC cannot be...