GARETH VAN ONSELEN: The Northern Cape is the 2019 dark horse
The numbers speak for themselves: the ANC seems to have stalled in the Northern Cape, and the DA is carrying the remainder
Some considerable time ago, the DA identified three strategic provincial targets for election 2019: Gauteng, the Western Cape and the Northern Cape. There has been much written on the first two, but precious little on the third. The Northern Cape is, in many respects, the dark horse in this election. If history is anything to go by, the DA is surging and the ANC’s vote, as it is across the country, has stagnated in the province. Given how small the province’s voting population is, a relatively small electoral shift could have profound impact, come May 8. PODCAST | The DA didn’t win the 2016 election, as much as the ANC lost it Subscribe: iono.fm | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | Pocket Casts | Player.fm Some of the key historical data in the province first: here is how the ANC and DA have performed in each national and provincial election since 1994 (on the provincial ballot): ANC
1994: 49.74% (200,839 votes) 1999: 64.32% (210,837 votes) 2004: 68.83% (219,365 votes) 2009: 60.75% ...