ISAAH MHLANGA: Even if Moody’s downgrades SA, it’s not irreversible
Given the agency’s record, a negative outlook is unlikely and countries tend to recover 12 months after a downgrade
In 1994 Moody’s was the only credit rating agency to grant SA a foreign currency credit rating with an investment grade, Baa3. This is equivalent to a BBB- from S&P and Fitch, whose initial ratings were BB and BB+ — one and two levels below investment grade respectively. Over the next 25 years the country’s credit rating improved to a best of A3 by Moody’s in 2009 and BBB+ by S&P and Fitch in 2005. However, a combination of the global financial crisis-induced economic slump and outright domestic economic mismanagement has reversed all the hard work done to improve the country’s credit rating, sending the country back to 1994’s level of creditworthiness. Throughout this journey it has been clear that Moody’s has favoured SA, as its rating has always been higher than those of the other two agencies. PODCAST: Listen to more commentary on the topic. Subscribe: iono.fm | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | Pocket Casts | Player.fm The Moody’s credit rating review, which is expected after markets ...
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