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What follows is an attempt to sketch in general terms how many votes the ANC would need in Gauteng to secure 51% in the province on May 8, and what some of the considerable obstacles in the way of it achieving that are. Here are the key background statistics from the last election: 2014 All Gauteng registered voters: 6,063,739 2014 Total Gauteng votes cast [provincial ballot]: 4,424,424 2014 Gauteng turnout [provincial ballot]: 72.965% 2014 ANC votes [provincial ballot]: 2,348,564 for 53.59% As of March 19, the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) had a total of 6,379,311 voters registered in Gauteng. That number will probably change a small bit, with late registrations, but not by much. Using it we can generate a number of turnout scenarios and see how many votes, for each scenario, the ANC would need to get to 51%. The first thing one needs to do is work out what kind of turnout scenarios are likely. Here is the turnout percentage, on the Gauteng provincial ballot, for the past four p...

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