GARETH VAN ONSELEN: Three DA scenarios after the election
The truth of the matter is that, whatever the outcome for the DA, the problems responsible for its relatively poor performance will be the same
As things stand — and barring some kind of black swan event — the DA seems headed for about 22% in the 2019 election. Whichever way you cut that, it is not a great result. But, depending on whether it finishes just below or just above 22% — the same percentage it secured in 2014 — a range of different responses inside and outside the party are likely. Here are three possible scenarios: the first flows from the DA getting below 22% — say about 20%; in other words, its support levels drop. The second would see the DA ending on 22% or thereabout — in other words, stagnation. And the third would stem from some small growth, up to say 24% — not enough to claim the campaign a wild success, but enough perhaps, to save face. Backdrop Before we do that, a few more general observations. A possible result in this election, so far as the “big three” political parties are concerned, is that the EFF is the only party to grow, certainly to grow in any meaningful way (admittedly off a relatively sm...
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