Remember the order in which we form abstract beliefs: 1 We hear something; 2 We believe it; 3 Only sometimes, later, if we have the time or inclination, we think about it and vet it, determining whether or not it is true. "Wanna bet?" triggers us to engage in that third step we only sometimes go to. — Annie Duke. As a "belief engine", the brain is always seeking to find meaning in the information that pours into it. Once it has constructed a belief, it rationalises it with explanations, almost always after the event. The brain thus becomes invested in the beliefs, and reinforces them by looking for supporting evidence while blinding itself to anything contrary. Michael Shermer, the psychology professor who founded Skeptic magazine, defines the process as "belief-dependent realism" — that what we believe determines our reality, not the other way around. He gives the names "patternicity" and "agenticity" to the brain’s pattern-seeking and agency-attributing propensities that underlie ...

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