TIM COHEN: Midterm results show Trump has big chance of winning second term
Given US history, president presided over a normal loss of seats
US President Donald Trump is such a loathsome individual that many will read the outcome of the US midterm elections as a “repudiation” of him, even though his name didn’t appear on any ballot. But there is something that the huge, global, anti-Trump consensus — in which I include myself — really needs to appreciate: extrapolating from the midterm results, Trump has a 8:1 chance of winning a second term. It just seems so improbable. I think it relates to that old biblical reference, why do you notice the chip in your brother’s eye and not the plank in your own? The Democrats did seem to deliver, winning the popular vote and retaking the House of Representatives. But I read a great piece by Columbia academic Musa al-Gharbi, who said virtually everything Trump says or does seems so beyond the pale that it becomes difficult to imagine that historical patterns might apply. Given the extraordinary context leading into the 2018 midterms, it may seem inconceivable that they yielded perfect...
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