We are beginning to get a clearer line of sight of how the next five years in SA will look. Without an unlikely game-changing event — such as the ANC losing the 2019 election, the governing party completely overhauling its strategic posture or splitting – we are pretty much locked into the path we are on, which is a long and painful downward trajectory of the economy, living standards and social cohesion. It is a very negative outlook. It could be averted, but that would require great vision and courage by both political leaders and voters. Either ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa would need to forge an alliance directly with voters, leaving the ANC to follow him or to split; or the offering of the DA (and other opposition parties) would have to somehow become far more compelling. It is in part the ANC’s decision to change the constitution to make expropriation without compensation explicit that affirmed this outlook. In the past six months the governing party had done a reasonable job ...

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