Michel Pireu Columnist

From Albert Bridge Capital: If you are a junior analyst at a big fund management firm, it is extremely difficult to pitch an idea that the "smartest" (or at least loudest) folks out there have already concluded is a dog with fleas. The idea will not only sound stupid, but if it doesn’t work you’ll probably be fired; and if it does work, people will just think you were lucky. It is so much easier to just pitch a "winner" at all-time highs. If the winner continues higher, you’re a genius surrounded by like-minded geniuses; but if it falls from grace, you’re okay, because every other "smart" guy out there liked it, and everyone else is suffering too. These psychological and institutional biases affect us throughout our careers. It’s really, really difficult to see, let alone process, disconfirming evidence. So our view is this: if more than one of our friends thinks we’ve lost our marbles over a particular idea, we think there is a chance that we are onto something. We believe stock pr...

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