ECONOMY
HILARY JOFFE: Escaping recession a welcome surprise, but Ramaphosa will need to do more
If the recession didn’t happen, should we call Zuma back? This was the response from one wag to the collection of surprises in Tuesday’s fourth-quarter GDP figures, which left at least some economists reeling. One lot of surprises came with a series of routine revisions to the data for the past three to four years that had the effect of wiping out 2017’s recession and painted a rosier picture than we had assumed. The other was in the fourth-quarter figures themselves. The South African economy grew faster than expected during the quarter, bringing the growth rate for 2017 to a better-than-expected 1.3%. Revisions are fairly standard stuff for the national-accounts statisticians who compile the GDP numbers. They estimate quarterly growth statistics based on the data they have at the time, but over time much more and better information becomes available, which they use to benchmark and if necessary revise the numbers. Statistics SA economic statistics head Joe de Beer says the agency ...
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