DECISION MAKING
TONY LEON: All the signs point to junking most of our specialist forecasting models
Theresa May supremely in control of her country and party and the Brexit process; Angela Merkel, the indispensable leader of the western world, cruising to a resounding win in the German election; Donald Trump on course to blow up the US economy or to impeachment; Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma odds-on favourite to succeed her namesake as South African president. Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille unassailably coasting through her second term. Steinhoff and its CEO, Markus Jooste, exemplars of this country’s corporate excellence — built for export into the rough and tumble of European retail markets. The above, to cite key top-line examples, is precisely how the world and this country were projected exactly a year ago. Just as with our local climate patterns, as drought-ravaged SA is learning, the political and economic weather forecasting proves to be wildly unpredictable and often inaccurate. In short order, in mid-2017 the British prime minister lost control of her electorate and her par...
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