BUDGET
HILARY JOFFE: Growth is the dark horse for predictions
With just two weeks to go to the budget, at least four big uncertainties could derail the numbers, even in the very short term. Growth is one. Economists have been revising their growth forecasts upwards since Cyril Ramaphosa’s win at the ANC’s elective conference, and where the disastrous October budget assumed growth of 1.1% in 2018, rising to 1.5% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020, most forecasts are now meaningfully higher. It’s hardly shoot-the-lights-out stuff, but the Reserve Bank has upped its forecast for 2018 to 1.4%, as has the Bureau for Economic Research, which has won awards for the accuracy of its forecasting and now sees the growth rate rising to 1.9% in 2019.The range among economists is quite wide and the Treasury will need to pick numbers for the next three years that are realistic and credible in the eyes of the market and the rating agencies. But what is realistic now? The Treasury has had to pin down the budget numbers in an almost binary context in which confidence and...
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