ECONOMY
CLAIRE BISSEKER: SA cannot wait long for ‘Cyril dividend’
People are calling it the "Cyril dividend", referring to the surge in positive sentiment and investor confidence unlocked by Cyril Ramaphosa’s election victory at the ANC’s conference. The expectation is that this will spur consumer spending and investment, allowing SA to outperform the measly growth consensus forecast of about 1% in 2018. Many economists are revising up forecasts, with the most bullish now looking for growth to come in at about 2% or more in 2018, assuming the global environment and commodity prices continue to remain supportive. If GDP growth rebounds above the Treasury’s sober forecast for 1.1% in 2018, 1.5% for 2019 and 1.9% in 2020, the dire debt trajectory outlined in 2017’s medium-term budget will be reined in. Instead of exploding to an unsustainable 60% of GDP by 2020-2021, there is now a chance the debt trajectory could stabilise and further rating downgrades be averted. But nothing is in the bag yet. First, Ramaphosa has to sustain the reforming momentum ...
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