PREDICTING THE FUTURE
ISMAIL LAGARDIEN: Historic parallels and the rise of China
There are parallels between the period following the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the period of 2008-10, with clear and present social and political economic dangers emerging
It is a bit late in January to reflect on the year that we have left behind. It is also rather futile to predict what the next year will bring — unless you’re clairvoyant. Nonetheless, I would imagine that most orthodox economists and public intellectuals have by now made their predictions for 2018. More than any other professionals, economists typically rely heavily on their own powers of prediction. I can only wish I had such powers. This is not to say that one cannot speculate about events or states of affairs that may unfold in the coming months. There are things that started in 2017, or the year before, that will surely continue into 2018. However, it is always good to proceed with a touch of humility and, well, leave room for the irrationalities. A good reminder is John Maynard Keynes’s prediction, soon after the Wall Street Crash of 1929, that there would be no serious consequences for the UK, and that the future looked "decidedly encouraging". This was before he finalised hi...
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