CORRUPTION AND GROWTH
GAVIN KEETON: Bad politics threatens to reduce Brics laggards to rubble
The world economy is finally recovering from the slowdown that followed the 2007 global financial crisis. The IMF forecasts that global growth will be 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018. While this does not match the stellar 4.3% annual growth recorded between 2000 and 2006, it is faster than the 3.2% per annum growth in the 1980s and 1990s. Improved global performance increases demand for commodities, which is reflected in the rise of the oil price to above $60 per barrel. Higher prices should benefit commodity-producing countries. Yet, despite the global pick-up, economic growth in some prominent commodity producers — including Russia, Brazil and SA — remains very weak. In 2016, Russia’s GDP shrank by 0.2% and Brazil’s by an astonishing 3.6%. SA’s GDP grew just 0.3%. In 2017 and 2018, the IMF expects growth of 1.8% and 1.6% in Russia, 0.7% and 1.5% in Brazil, and 0.7% and 1.1% in SA. Ironically, Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA) countries were expected to tilt the share of gl...
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