POINT OF ORDER
TIM COHEN: ANC candidates’ backers are the big problem
Ramaphosa’s supporters are in it for personal advancement, while Dlamini-Zuma’s want to loot and to save their precarious grip on the ladder of prosperity
There is really only one important question at the moment and it’s the obvious one: who is going to win? Over the past few weeks, I’ve spoken to a wide range of people who might know, or who claim to know, or are close to people who claim to know, and it saddens me to report that they, like me, don’t know. And the reason is very simple: as important as it may be, this is not a knowable fact as we stand here now at this crucial crossroads in our history. Fortunately for us, the financial markets do know. SA was downgraded to full junk status by one of the two most reputable ratings agencies out there, and the rand promptly rose. And not just by a bit; that rand is trading about 3% stronger than it did before the downgrade.
Obviously, this is the precise opposite of what you might expect; downgrades are agonising decisions and are almost never taken without a solid body of evidence. Many would claim, mostly after the fact, that the decline had already been priced into the market...
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