The ANC’s 54th national conference is two-and-a-half months away. Things are quite uncertain, dire even, given the rifts and court battles in key provinces, violence and disruption of critical meetings, political killings and the looming danger of President Jacob Zuma remaining on as party president beyond December due to a collapsed conference or one challenged in court. These things are whispered about beneath tightly knotted eyebrows and downturned lips. Deciding who to trust will be quite tricky. The camp aligned to Zuma appears to have fractured considerably since 2015. The recall of Nhlanhla Nene, the Constitutional Court judgment on Nkandla, the Guptas and state capture, and the combined effect of these elements on the ANC’s 2016 electoral support have contributed to this. The 2012 Zuma camp has split into three — those aligned to ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa; to former KwaZulu-Natal chairman Zweli Mkhize and his Mpumalanga counterpart, David Mabuza; and a third group...

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