From Philosophical Economics: In many areas of life, the truth doesn’t enforce itself. It doesn’t impose consequences on those who go against it. Examples of such areas include: politics, media, sales, entertainment, law, religion and so on. In these areas, appearances tend to be more important than reality. Outcomes tend to be decided by the question of who does the best job of persuading people and of favourably impacting their feelings, not by the question of who makes the truest statements about the world. But there is one area of life, near and dear to all of our hearts, where the truth does enforce itself, imposing severe consequences on anyone who dares to go against it. That area is the area of speculation. To "speculate" is to put something of value – usually money, but it can be other things – directly at risk on a belief. When a person speculates, she makes herself fully accountable to the truth. If she speculates correctly, in accordance with the truth, she gains a rewar...
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