Extract from an interview with Robert Shiller last week at Quartz: Quartz: Are your feelings on the stock market based on the CAPE ratio? Shiller: The CAPE ratio is just one indicator.... Since 1989 I’ve been doing questionnaire surveys of both individual and institutional investors.... I believe in it, somewhat, though I don’t think it answers everything. I have something I call a valuation confidence index. I don’t have it really up to date because it’s only a six-month moving average based on small surveys. But valuation confidence is at the lowest it’s been since around 2000. In other words, people think the market is highly valued. Both individual and institutional investors. We are in a time of mistrust of the market. The only time mistrust of the market was lower since 1989 was in 2000. So around 2000, the peak of the dotcom bubble. It seems like the mind-set is somewhat similar to the dotcom mind-set. And that brings us to the Fangs [Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google] as ...
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