After last week’s no-confidence vote in Parliament, a line of analysis has emerged in this newspaper and in others. The closeness of the vote has revealed that the ANC is destined to split, it is said. Those committed to SA’s Constitution are on one side, those who put party above country are on the other. Breaking away will be hugely difficult for either, so the argument goes, but the differences cannot be bridged and the split is bound to come. With great respect and in the best spirit, I am not sure that is right. It appears to be an analysis born of hope instead of sobriety. The hope is that if the ANC can be divided into good and bad, the bad will conveniently self-destruct, leaving the rest of us to a new beginning. We are dreaming we can have our cake and eat it; that if Cyril Ramaphosa wins in December, things will turn out well. And that if Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma wins in December, things will also turn out well, because following her victory, the good ANC will break away, l...

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