STREET DOGS: Bears
A few things about bears that may hold lessons for stock market investors
A few things Allen Gillespie learnt while vacationing in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from his book 13 Things to Understand about Bears: Lessons for Stock Market Investors.
Hikers should carry bear spray, which is proven to be "90% effective" (and 100% effective in producing sales). Hold some cash, buy some insurance, there is always someone selling protection from bears, but nothing is 100% effective. Statistically, you are more likely to be killed by an avalanche or a moose than a bear. That’s not to say that you shouldn’t buy the bear spray. Bears prefer higher elevations and are lazy. As a result, they prefer to run downhill. High valuations and high multiples make bear markets more likely. Bear attacks are most common in the months of July, August and September, when bears come out of hibernation looking for food and the number of recreationalists increases, making encounters more likely. These months seem to line up reasonably well with stock market seasonality. Hiking in groups and making a noise cuts the chances of being attacked. When there are many people making noise there is a lower likelihood of being attacked. Worry when it is too quiet. ...
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