AGRICULTURE
WANDILE SIHLOBO: SA faces stiff maize export competition
New developments resonate with concern that SA’s maize industry must penetrate new maize export markets
The maize industry has made a remarkable rebound and is expecting a bumper crop this season. However, new developments have compelled me to revise parts of my recent maize export market analysis, particularly regarding maize export opportunities in Africa. The dynamics in African agricultural markets have changed dramatically. While South African maize farmers are struggling to break even due to lower prices, white maize prices in East Africa are well above R7,200 a tonne, treble JSE prices. This uptick in East African maize prices is largely due to lower supplies in the region. The South African maize market is depressed due to an expected 14.5-million tonne harvest, well above an average production of 12.5-million tonnes. SA has consequently regained its status as a net exporter of maize after being a net importer for two consecutive marketing seasons — 2015-16 and 2016-17. The 2017-18 exports are set to reach 2.7-million tonnes. About 52% of this is set to be white maize and 48% ...
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