The 2016-17 summer crop production season started on a slightly positive note for Southern Africa’s agricultural sector after emerging from a devastating drought in the 2015-16 season. For SA, there are already promising indications that the country could retain its status as a net exporter of maize. In the second week of 2017, the US agriculture department reiterated its view on SA’s 2016-17 maize production, leaving its estimate unchanged at 13-million tonnes, which is a 65% year-on-year increase. So far, the lowest market estimate is 11.7-million tonnes. If SA manages to achieve a crop within this range, it will regain its status as a net exporter of maize (local maize consumption is about 10.5-million tonnes a year).With Southern African countries having emerged from drought, crop damage by army worm will make grain imports from SA critical. According to data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, the average annual maize production of the Southern African Development Co...

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