DAVID WOLPERT: Sound risk management needed over Brazil’s bird flu

SA’s poultry industry is once again under pressure — this time from an avian influenza outbreak in Brazil that threatens to disrupt the supply of mechanically deboned meat (MDM), an ingredient in the country’s low-cost processed chicken products.

The situation has reignited old tensions between importers and local producers. I write from experience, having worked in the sector for many years but now with no vested interest. What’s needed now is not entrenched positions but clarity, transparency and sound risk management.

Brazil and the regionalisation dilemma

Brazil has long been SA’s top source of MDM. When avian flu broke out in Brazilian wild birds the SA authorities initially imposed a full suspension, later replaced by a regionalisation approach, consistent with global trade norms.

This allows imports from unaffected regions under strict certification. Supporters argue this balances trade and safety, assuming rigorous enforcement. Critics counter that no system is foolproof, and that any opening to an avian flu-affected country brings inherent risk — especially if local enforcement capacity is stretched.

Globally, regionalisation has worked, but not always. In some cases (such as Ukraine-EU, and US-South Korea), regionalisation was reversed when documentation or internal controls were found lacking. The question is whether SA has the systems in place to manage that risk, because if the system fails the consequences for local flocks — and the wider industry — could be severe.

SA, with much experience in this area, is likely to make it work, but can other suppliers fill the gap? With Brazilian supply constrained, alternative sources such as Thailand and Australia have been raised.

Thailand has previously exported poultry to SA and is likely to retain valid certification. But its ability to supply MDM specifically, at scale and low cost, remains unclear.

Australia produces MDM, but largely for pet food or disposal. It is not set up to export human-grade MDM in significant volumes. Switching would require commercial incentives and updated certifications.

Can local producers step in?

The SA Poultry Association has stated that the local industry can meet demand, but this appears to refer mainly to cuts and whole birds. MDM is a different matter — it’s a by-product that depends on a processing strategy.

To increase MDM output local processors would need to divert carcasses from other uses and reconfigure production. No public data confirms that SA producers can meet total MDM demand at competitive prices in the short term.

At heart, this is a policy issue. SA must balance:

• Protecting local producers and jobs;
• Ensuring affordable food for low-income consumers; and
• Maintaining biosecurity and public health standards.

Restricting imports too sharply may drive up processed food prices, affecting the poorest households. But relaxing health controls too far may endanger long-term industry stability.

A strategic, quota-based import framework — from certified sources — could offer a workable, but probably unpopular, compromise. This would buy time to expand local capacity while protecting consumers and biosecurity.

Time for transparency, not turf wars

All too often this debate is reduced to caricatures — “greedy importers” versus “pampered producers”. But the issue is far more complex than that, and the stakes are national.

To move forward SA needs:

• Clear data on local MDM availability, cost, and demand;
• Honest, inclusive dialogue among importers, local producers, the government and retailers; and
• A shared commitment to evidence-led policy, not ideology.

Protein affordability and industry sustainability are not mutually exclusive, but they will only be achieved through sober, science-based decisions.

• Wolpert is a retired CEO of the Association of Meat Importers & Exporters.