NICHOLAS SHUBITZ: India-Pakistan clash a great revealer for Brics armaments

The recent clash between India and Pakistan has revealed a great deal about the real world capabilities of the two countries’ weapons systems.

After a terrorist attack in Kashmir that claimed the lives of 26 civilians in April, India launched Operation Sindoor in retaliation, targeting alleged terrorist sites within Pakistan. While the ensuing conflict proved short-lived, the mutual exchange of fire has significantly raised the profile of Brics-manufactured military equipment.      

The India-Pakistan conflict traces its origins back to the 1947 partition of British India, which left the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir contested between the two newly independent nations. As a Muslim majority region the local citizens felt Kashmir should be incorporated into Pakistan.

However, the Hindu ruler of the region ensured the disputed border region would belong to India and simmering tensions have boiled over periodically ever since.    

Over the decades this territorial dispute has led to regular skirmishes, with both nations asserting their claims over the disputed region.

As such, the Pahalgam attack was not an isolated incident but rather a continuation of a long-standing pattern of violence and retaliation that has defined India-Pakistan relations for decades.

That said, the recent clash between India and Pakistan was the worst outbreak of hostilities in 20 years, with both parties deploying advanced military hardware.    

In response to the Pahalgam attack, India deployed its French-made Rafale jets equipped with Scalp missiles and AASM Hammer bombs, which it used to strike nine sites across Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

Pakistan, making use of its Chinese-supplied J-10C “Firebird” fighter jets and PL-15 missiles, responded decisively, successfully shooting down as many as five Indian jets.   

The effectiveness of Chinese weaponry in Pakistan’s arsenal did not go unnoticed. The J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles demonstrated capabilities that challenged the perceived superiority of Western military equipment and led to an immediate surge in Chinese defence stocks.

Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the company that manufactures the J-10C, saw its share price rise 60% in just five days on the news.

Other major Chinese defence contractors also saw their stock prices increase as these developments dovetailed with a relief rally in Chinese markets after a pause on Trump’s steepest trade war tariffs.

Meanwhile, Dassault Aviation, the French firm that manufactures the Indian jets that were shot down, saw its own share price decline by almost 10% over the same period.

While aerial battles captured headlines, another dimension of the conflict unfolded in the form of drone warfare.

India deployed Israeli-made Harop drones to target strategic locations within Pakistan, but Islamabad largely neutralised these threats. While some military analysts believe India failed to use its Western weapons effectively, equity markets have attributed much of Pakistan’s success to China.     

These events mark a significant development, showcasing the potency of Chinese defence technology in real-world combat scenarios. At the same time high-ranking Indian officials, including the defence minister and prime minister, credited Russian systems for the defence of India, further highlighting the importance of Brics arms manufacturers within the global security architecture.   

After the ceasefire went into effect, Prime Minister Narendra Modi openly praised the effectiveness of Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missiles, saying that they had given “unprecedented strength to the country”.

Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh then gave a speech in which he praised the BrahMos missiles jointly manufactured by Russia and India, saying, “Now the whole world has seen that weapons made in India are infallible and impenetrable.”   

While both India and Pakistan claimed victory, the outcome of the recent conflict was arguably a bigger blow to India, a far larger country that was unable to assert obvious dominance over its smaller neighbour.

Similarly, that Pakistan made effective use of Chinese-made weapons to defend itself against Indian attacks represents a further blow to Indian prestige and regional power projection.

To make matters worse for New Delhi, US President Donald Trump lowered the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% shortly afterwards, making it increasingly unlikely that much manufacturing will be shifted from China to India.

Trump even gave an interview shortly after the clash in which he said he does not want Apple CEO Tim Cook to build Apple products in India, having already spoken out against the idea of a Tesla plant in India earlier this year.

The combination of these recent developments may lead to a strategic recalibration for India, which despite being a founding member of the Brics has increasingly courted Western investment in recent years.

This is a major reason New Delhi has been buying more Western military systems despite the higher costs. Russia has seen its share of Indian arms imports more than halve from 72% in 2010 to just 35% in 2024, with India increasingly turning to Western arms manufacturers instead. 

Notable deals between India and the West include the acquisition of long-range US drones and a joint venture with General Electric to manufacture advanced jet engines in India.

Combined with purchases of French jets and Israeli-made drones, New Delhi has treated these arms purchases as a form of economic diplomacy. A means of attracting increased foreign direct investment from the West. 

Unfortunately for Modi, this pivot to the West has not proven particularly effective. Manufacturing as a share of the Indian economy has actually declined under Modi, and with Trump backtracking on most of his tariffs there is little economic incentive for Western companies to shift production to India.

Western weapons systems are also more expensive than their Russian counterparts and usually come with restrictions on technology transfers that prevent India from developing its own defence industry.

In contrast, Russia has historically offered joint projects, such as the development of BrahMos missiles and AK-203 rifles, allowing India to build and customise weaponry domestically. The lack of similar arrangements with Western suppliers and the disappointing recent performance of expensive Western equipment in combat means India may revert to closer alignment with the Russians going forward.

The Russian media also covered the recent clashes between India and Pakistan in a manner that was particularly flattering to India, downplaying any news that suggested Pakistani successes. The rest of the international press was more open about India’s setbacks and the effectiveness of Pakistan’s defence systems. This may also contribute to a further deepening of historically strong Russia-India ties. 

The recent conflict between India and Pakistan may not have resolved a long-standing conflict, but it has elevated the status of Brics nations in the global military arena.

The demonstrated effectiveness of both Chinese and Russian weapon systems has challenged the perceived superiority of Western military technology and is likely to further enhance defence co-operation between Brics nations.

• Shubitz is an independent Brics analyst.