ALEX MALAPANE: Disaster out of the blue: when crises become too big for states to fail

In a few weeks the world has borne witness to a confluence of devastating disasters that have left deep physical, emotional and economic scars across continents. The fatal Air India crash near Ahmedabad claimed the lives of about 270 people, a catastrophic event with global aviation and safety implications.

In Southern Africa, the Eastern Cape has been ravaged by one of the worst floods in recent memory — 78 people confirmed dead, hundreds injured and almost 1,000 residents displaced. Thousands of homes have been destroyed, dozens of schools rendered inaccessible or collapsed, rural clinics inundated, and entire communities severed from access to food, healthcare and communication networks.

These events, far from isolated, highlight a glaring and dangerous truth: the global architecture for disaster preparedness is reactive, underfunded and increasingly outpaced by the scale of crisis events. 

Disasters of this magnitude carry far-reaching economic consequences that extend beyond the visible destruction. Preliminary estimates from local authorities in the Eastern Cape suggest the infrastructure damage alone — including washed-out bridges, collapsed roads and destroyed public buildings — will exceed R2.5bn. This excludes the indirect economic effects, such as business closures, loss of livestock and crops, and labour force disruptions.

Power outages have affected at least 120,000 households in the region, while fibre lines and mobile towers have been damaged across several municipalities, resulting in widespread internet disruptions. Several small towns reported complete loss of cellular network coverage for up to 48 hours, cutting off communities from emergency services and leaving critical response operations in the dark.

For small, medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs) — the backbone of SA’s local economy, contributing about 34% to GDP and employing nearly 60% of the workforce — the disruption is existential. In the worst-hit areas more than 1,500 small businesses have suffered significant damage or have been forced to close due to flooding, lack of electricity or inaccessible premises. Informal traders, who often operate without insurance or capital reserves, have lost entire inventories.

Local agribusinesses have reported crop losses of up to 70%, with some dairy farms losing herds to floodwaters and poultry operations facing mass deaths due to power failures and lack of feed delivery. For every day that power remains down or transport routes are impassable, SMMEs incur unrecoverable income losses, jeopardising not just their survival but the livelihoods of thousands of workers and dependent households. 

The knock-on effects of these disasters are equally harrowing. Children in flood-affected areas have lost access to education, with at least 65 schools either damaged or used as temporary shelters. Many students will miss examinations and weeks of learning, further widening the inequality gap in already underresourced rural communities. Public health systems are also overwhelmed. Clinics have run out of essential medicines, and disease outbreaks, including cases of waterborne illnesses such as cholera and dysentery, are becoming increasingly likely as sanitation systems fail and clean water becomes scarce. 

In aviation, the crash of the Air India flight with only a single survivor represents not only a human tragedy but also a systemic warning sign for global transport safety. India’s civil aviation sector, which carries more than 150-million passengers annually, must now reckon with a loss of public confidence, likely delays in regulatory approvals, and significant economic losses.

The incident has prompted investigations across multiple jurisdictions and could trigger insurance payouts of more than $600m when accounting for aircraft loss, victim compensation and legal liabilities. For an industry still recovering from Covid-related turbulence, the reputational and financial hit is profound.

The interconnectedness of modern infrastructure means such disasters, no matter how geographically distant, reverberate across markets. Supply chains are disrupted, investor sentiment is shaken, and insurers face unanticipated claims that put pressure on premiums. When infrastructure fails or is slow to recover, the cost of doing business increases.

Data centres in Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban reported minor outages due to relay failures in regional networks, while transport logistics in the Eastern Cape, a crucial link in domestic freight movement, have been disrupted by road collapses and fuel delivery halts. This not only delays goods to market but also risks inflationary pressures in regional economies where access to essentials becomes constrained. 

SA’s economy, already forecast to grow at little more than 1% in 2025 due to power constraints and weak private sector investment, now faces an additional drag. Economists estimate that the Eastern Cape floods could shave off 0.2%-0.4% of provincial GDP, a substantial blow in a province that already has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Additionally, emergency expenditure to restore roads, rebuild infrastructure and provide humanitarian relief will divert funds from other development priorities, such as housing, water infrastructure and health system upgrades. 

Yet even amid this destruction the data remains unequivocal: disasters, while seemingly unavoidable, do not have to become catastrophes. Countries that treat disaster preparedness as a development issue, not just a humanitarian one, consistently fare better in saving lives, reducing economic losses and recovering faster.

According to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, countries with prepositioned risk governance systems experience an average of 23% less economic loss from disasters compared with those with fragmented or ad hoc responses. For instance, early warning systems have been proven to reduce mortality by up to 80% in cyclonic storms, as demonstrated in countries such as Bangladesh. 

It is no longer acceptable for governments, especially in disaster-prone regions, to underinvest in preparedness. SA’s public infrastructure allocation must urgently embed climate and disaster resilience into its budget framework, with ring-fenced funds for adaptation and mitigation. Provincial disaster response units must be equipped with the data infrastructure, personnel, technology drones, mobile data terminals and real-time risk mapping that modern emergencies demand.

Co-ordination between departments must be streamlined and tested through frequent multi-agency simulations. The insurance industry must expand access to parametric insurance products for SMMEs and low-income communities, linking payouts to measurable weather events such as rainfall levels or wind speeds.

Disaster resilience must also extend to the digital economy. With internet and telecommunications forming the backbone of response logistics, early warning dissemination and business continuity, redundancy must be designed into the network. Partnerships between the state and telecom providers should establish satellite-based backup connectivity and battery-powered mobile towers for high-risk zones. 

Resilience begins in communities. Local leaders, educators, business owners and civic organisations are not auxiliary to disaster response; they are its cornerstone. A national public education campaign, community emergency committees and school-based preparedness programmes can transform passive populations into active participants.

In a crisis, every minute counts, and decentralised action saves lives. 

• Dr Malapane is an executive, strategist, conference speaker and facilitator, multidisciplinary researcher and independent analyst.