RISENGA MALULEKE: Stats SA’s numbers are open to contestation, but our methods are beyond reproach

Capitec Bank CEO Gerrie Fourie raised questions in your article about the accuracy of SA’s unemployment data, suggesting that informal traders in our townships or villages are being misclassified or ignored by Statistics SA (Stats SA) (“Jobless rate really 10%”, June 10).

As statistician-general, it is both my duty and prerogative, guided by the fundamental principles of official statistics, to respond when statistics are misunderstood, misinterpreted or, as in this case, risk being misused in public discourse.

As a national statistics office we accept that our unemployment figures are among the most scrutinised data products in the country. Industry leaders, labour, policymakers, NGOs and academics rely on our figures, and we welcome such attention.

However, it becomes necessary to respond when assertions such as those by Fourie give the public the impression that our work does not reflect reality, or is somehow out of step with what is happening on the ground.

Let us be unequivocal: Stats SA does measure the informal sector. It follows the guidelines set by the International Labour Organisation for defining the informal sector, which is characterised primarily by the registration status and size of enterprises or businesses.

To qualify as part of the informal sector, employees must be unregistered for income tax and work in establishments with fewer than five individuals. This category also encompasses employers, own-account workers and those providing unpaid assistance in household businesses who do not register for income tax or VAT.

This is measured through the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). This household-based sample survey collects quarterly data on the labour market activities of individuals aged 15 and older living in SA. So, it is incorrect — and misleading — to suggest that we somehow “miss” those who are employed in the informal sector.

Our mandate is clear: to measure labour market activity objectively, transparently and in accordance with international standards. The headline unemployment rate of 32.9%, as recorded in the first quarter of 2025, reflects the proportion of people without work who are actively seeking and available for work.

This is an ILO-defined indicator used worldwide, including in countries such as Mexico, which Mr Fourie referenced. Like the definition of discouraged job-seekers, Stats SA is guided by the ILO.

The informal economy is not ignored — far from it. Stats SA produces several statistical products that measure this sector, including the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, and the Survey of Employers & Self-Employed. The informal sector is measured, tracked and reported on consistently, and if anything the insights these reports provide should guide and enrich policy, not distort it.

The unemployment figures Stats SA publishes are based on what people say when we conduct regular surveys in society. Fourie will surely have met many unemployed people throughout the country, many in townships and rural areas.

We have a staggering 3.8-million young people aged 15-24 without employment, education or training. Many people have questioned why people as young as 15 are included in the labour force. When they are at school we do not include them, but we do include them when they are employed or looking for employment. This is in line with the prescripts of section 43 of the Labour Relations Act.

To suggest, as the article does, that Stats SA could “make a dent” in unemployment betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what a national statistics office does.

We do not intervene in the labour market. We do not regulate the informal sector. We do not enact economic policy or comment about policy due to the independent nature of our work. We measure. And in measuring, we provide the data that allows others — government, business, civil society — to act with insight and intent.

Our methods stand open to rigorous examination, inviting scrutiny to ensure integrity and trustworthiness. The data we produce is publicly accessible, fostering a culture of openness.

Our concepts, definitions and classifications are meticulously crafted, guided by the highest global standards and best practices. We take pride in our commitment to transparency, clearly articulating what we measure, and the methods employed to derive our insights.

We urge industry leaders to engage more deeply with official statistics before questioning their validity. While constructive debate is encouraged, it should be based on solid evidence.

Our goal is to enhance lives through the data ecosystem, and we are committed to collaborating with other data producers to strengthen our national statistical system. The SA public deserves nothing less.

• Maluleke, SA’s statistician-general, is head of Statistics SA