GERRIT OLIVIER: SA is not off the hook with the US

Almost invariably, newly elected political leaders take to foreign relations with enthusiasm despite lacking diplomatic experience. The reasons are obvious: exposure, fame and enjoying the ample rewards of the job.

The criteria for diplomatic success or failure are mostly obscure. However, in most cases success abroad does not automatically translate to success at home. Among SA leaders, field marshal Jan Smuts stood out as a brilliant, world-class leader in 1910, but at home his popularity was outshone by the far inferior disciples of apartheid.

History seems to have repeated itself with Thabo Mbeki and Cyril Ramaphosa as presidents. As in the case of Smuts, their external performances have outshone their domestic achievements. Mbeki was unseated prematurely by a quasi-literate demagogue and opportunist, who was far inferior to him.

Ramaphosa suffers from a crisis of domestic confidence due to the pitiful state of our economy and politics and his inability to lead the country out of the mess. At the same time, his foreign policy is neither fish nor fowl. As the truism has it, foreign policy starts at home, and here Ramaphosa has badly fallen short.

Domestically, he rules a house divided, with the ANC having lost its majority and now seeming to be in free fall, putting his leadership under sharp scrutiny. Despite his endeavours to portray himself as a conciliator, peacemaker and human rights advocate, Ramaphosa has failed internationally to gain the support for the role he craves to promote.

Being an unpopular leader of a small country struggling with its own domestic problems, the role of world statesman seems well out of reach, self-serving and overambitious. Of course, Ramaphosa’s leading role as mediator in bringing apartheid to an end enhanced his credibility as a peacemaker, though he is not revered as Nelson Mandela was.

Abdicated as leader

In Africa, under ANC leadership SA has abdicated as leader on political and economic fronts, and lately in North and Central Africa also on the military front. SA has simply been outperformed by others. No longer is the country regarded as primus inter pares, a “winning state” punching above its weight, as in the times of Mandela and Mbeki.

As an African leader, Ramaphosa appears readily available to be used as a subservient agent of propaganda by world powers in their quest for greater influence on the continent, enjoying access to leaders such as presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in return for the occasional pat on the back.

Timely warnings by local and foreign academic and business experts about the likely consequences of ill-considered foreign policy choices are simply dismissed by the president as “none of your business” — a patently unwise approach given the expectations and deficiencies of SA’s foreign policy.

Not since the dark days of apartheid has SA faced greater international humiliation than now. Among its biggest mistakes was to antagonise the world’s most powerful state. After consistent provocation the US reaction came as a hammer blow to Pretoria.

SA ambassador Ebrahim Rasool was declared persona non grata for patently undiplomatic behaviour, all future funding to SA was cut, and the US leadership declined to attend the forthcoming all-important G20 conference in SA.

To assuage domestic criticism SA boastfully declared that “it won’t be bullied” by the US or allow its sovereignty to be violated. This meant no concessions, and that American demands could be waived as misunderstandings, “storms in a teacup”.

Ramaphosa has now put his hope for a “reset” with Mcebisi Jonas as special envoy to the US, even though his chances are slim given his derogatory remarks about President Donald Trump in the past.

Contrary to the “hallelujahs” from some local media, the recent White House meeting between the two presidents was a damp squib. It did not “reset” relations. Trump was unimpressed; diplomatic relations were not restored, and nothing was said about the punitive measures that had been imposed.

Murders of white farmers may not be defined as genocide, but general despair about the impact of racist laws, persecution and threats to personal safety, and the country’s sky-high murder rate, paint a dark picture. As US secretary of state Marco Rubio stated, “bad things are happening in SA”. According to UN statistics 108,000 people left SA between 2020 and 2024, an annual average of 27,000 and average per day of 74. Something is clearly rotten in the state of SA, to misquote Shakespeare.

After three decades of wasted years in the wake of apartheid, SA is again at a historic turning point. Muddling through gives little hope of saving ourselves in a house divided. The introduction of a government of national unity (GNU) potentially removed a major evil: three decades of ANC majoritarianism, arrogance and incompetence. Now though, it seems the opportunity to genuinely reset and modernise our foreign policy is being obstructed by the ANC’s insistence on enjoying a monopoly over it.

Cold War aberrations

Maintaining the anachronistic ideological guidelines prescribed by a Marxist clique is no doubt a major stumbling block, obstructing our relations with the US in particular. This means the aberrations of the Cold War still dominate SA foreign policymaking. Ramaphosa regards Russia and China as our “valuable friends and allies with whom SA has strong historical ties”, and the same applies to anti-West failed states such as North Korea, Belarus, Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.

He describes this policy as active non-alignment, an approach that was formulated in India and Bandung (Java) at the height of the Cold War. Yet all of these countries are notorious oppressors of human rights. Hamas is lionised, while Israel is demonised. SA’s “non-aligned” status is patently phoney, lacking credibility and obsolete.

India and other Eastern nations have shifted to “multi-alignment”, or issue-based alliance, giving them the capacity to be flexible and maintain decisional autonomy, reflecting the nature and issues of the multilateral world of today and retaining the option to build strong partnerships with like-minded states.

Ramaphosa’s infatuation with Cold War-style non-alignment is an anachronism that is costing him and SA the influence and respect he so desperately yearns for.

• Olivier, a former ambassador to Russia and Kazakhstan, is professor emeritus at the University of Pretoria.