IMAMALENG MOTHEBE: Brazil bird flu — SA faces economic and food security crisis

The recent detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) at a commercial hatchery in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul has led to widespread disruption in poultry imports, putting our economy, jobs and national food security at risk.

As Brazil accounts for more than 90% of our mechanically deboned meat (MDM) imports and a significant share of poultry offal, any long-term disruption in this trade threatens affordable nutrition for millions of South Africans.

While the world’s largest poultry exporter grapples with a localised outbreak, SA faces a vital but urgent decision: will the trade restrictions we implement be science-based, targeted and proportional, or will they be sweeping, punitive and economically disastrous?

The numbers are stark. Brazil supplies more than 400-million poultry-based meals each month to SA through products like chicken feet, livers, gizzards and MDM, a foundational input in processed meat products.

Local producers have pledged to ramp up supply by 4-million birds monthly, but this is not enough. SA does not produce MDM at a commercial scale, and no other country has the capacity to substitute Brazil’s volume or mix of products.

The result? An enormous shortfall: nearly 3,800Mt of chicken feet, 1,315Mt of gizzards, and 287Mt of livers per month, even with local production increases.

Price surge

Prices are already surging — MDM has more than doubled from R13/kg to R31/kg — leaving processed meat manufacturers, who employ over 125,000 workers, facing potential job losses.

We are seeing the same increases in the price of chicken offal. These cost pressures are rapidly being passed on to consumers, especially in low-income households where affordable protein is vital.

What’s needed now is not panic, but policy. SA must urgently conclude a regionalisation or zoning agreement with Brazil, an internationally recognised mechanism that restricts imports only from the affected area while allowing safe trade from disease-free zones. This approach is backed by the World Organisation for Animal Health and is widely used by governments that understand the value of science-based risk management.

Encouragingly, several countries have already embraced regionalisation in response to Brazil’s outbreak, and SA would do well to join them, sooner rather than later.

Countries that have adopted a targeted, zoned response include Japan and the United Arab Emirates, which have restricted imports only from the municipality of Montenegro, the precise location of the outbreak.

Seventeen others, including Algeria, Egypt, El Salvador, Hong Kong, Mauritius, Lesotho, Myanmar, New Caledonia, Paraguay, French Polynesia, St Kitts & Nevis, Singapore, Suriname, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu and Vietnam have restricted imports within a 10km radius of the outbreak.

A broader but still regional response has come from Saudi Arabia, Angola, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Montenegro, the UK, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, the Eurasian Economic Union (including Russia), Cuba, Bahrain, Kazakhstan, and importantly, Namibia, SA’s neighbour and trading partner, which have restricted imports only from the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

Namibia’s approach is especially noteworthy. It shows that a pragmatic, science-based framework is achievable even within the Southern African region. As Namibia reopens trade with Brazil under this regionalisation model, SA must follow suit to avoid being left behind.

It is not just a matter of trade, it is about jobs, affordability and stability. Without immediate action to re-establish imports from safe zones in Brazil, SA faces a prolonged protein shortage and intensified inflationary pressure.

The Association of Meat Importers & Exporters urges the SA government to expedite regionalisation negotiations with Brazil. This is not a call for recklessness, but for rationality. Brazil has a proven track record of disease reporting, biosecurity controls and swift containment. The outbreak is confined to backyard flocks, with no commercial farms affected.

The way we respond to this crisis will set a precedent for future health-related trade disruptions. By expediting regionalisation SA will protect its economy and consumers. This is a moment for calm, credible policy action, not delay and paralysis.

• Mothebe is CEO of the Association of Meat Importers & Exporters.