WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN: Mcebisi Jonas and US-SA relations

The appointment of Mcebisi Jonas as SA’s envoy to the US is a welcome move to reset relations between Pretoria and Washington. While Jonas faces a steep challenge, he is well suited to the task. 

Ties between SA and the US have been on a sustained downward spiral. Pretoria’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, claims in May 2023 by the then US ambassador of arms being loaded onto a sanctioned Russian ship docked in Cape Town, and SA’s allegations at the International Court of Justice that Israel committed genocide against Palestinians, fuelled the discord. 

The downward spiral has accelerated since Donald Trump assumed office. In his first days he signed an executive order suspending all assistance to SA and offering Afrikaners refugee status in response to President Cyril Ramaphosa signing the Expropriation Act.

Last month SA’s ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, was expelled after remarks that led the Trump administration to label him a “race-baiting politician who hates America”. More recently the president indicated in a Truth Social post that he has no intention of attending the G20 summit in Johannesburg in November.

In short, Jonas has his work cut out if he is to stem the decline in bilateral relations and put it on a more positive footing. Fortunately, the new special envoy is no stranger to pressure politics. He rose to international prominence as deputy finance minister after he accused the wealthy Gupta family, which maintained close ties to then-president Jacob Zuma, of attempting to bribe him with $31.7m to accept the finance minister post. Jonas declined the offer, marking one of the most serious corruption allegations involving Zuma and the Guptas.

Jonas has held other influential positions. Ramaphosa appointed him as one of four presidential investment envoys charged with attracting new investments to SA. He is the non-executive board chair of MTN, Africa’s largest mobile network operator with 288-million customers in 18 African countries. Jonas is also the independent non-executive board chair of Northam Platinum, a platinum group metal producer that operates a smelter and base metals removal plant and is listed on the JSE. 

For SA much is at stake. The US is SA’s largest trading partner after China. The nation is also the largest beneficiary of the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa), a preferential trade agreement that for the past quarter century has benefited more than 30 African countries. With Agoa set to expire at the end of September, SA’s future eligibility is increasingly uncertain amid growing concerns over its perceived alignment with China, Iran and Hamas. 

So, what can Jonas hope to achieve? Apart from its focus on SA, the principal priority for the Trump administration in Africa has been the development of a reliable supply of critical and rare earth minerals. Washington’s efforts to strike a deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo for critical minerals in return for helping to end the conflict in the east with M23 rebels seems to be making progress.

SA has a potential role to play as it is a major exporter of platinum group metals, manganese and chrome. Given that these are designated as critical by the US government, they were excluded from the reciprocal tariffs the US imposed globally on April 2 (though the tariffs were subsequently paused).

It is to SA’s benefit that the US has an extremely limited capability to process key minerals, such as cobalt. Establishing a long-term supply agreement with Washington and fostering collaboration between the SA and American mining industries to enhance processing in both countries would be the basis for a mutually beneficial agreement. Indeed, prioritising the “strategic extraction and trade of critical natural resources” could become a focus area of a dramatically reduced American diplomatic presence in Africa.

A reset in the relationship could begin with discussions in the context of the Trade & Investment Framework Agreement that the US and SA first established in 1999. A revitalisation of this framework would be welcomed by various stakeholders, including the 600 US companies that account for 10% of the country’s GDP and employ more than 220,000 South Africans. 

Jonas’ first challenge will be to overcome the blowback from his critical remarks of Trump delivered in 2020 at the Ahmed Kathrada Foundation. Others have publicly criticised the president and subsequently found a way to develop a close and collaborative relationship, so given his experience Jonas should be able to develop a working relationship with the Trump White House. 

The special envoy could also benefit from the type of policy evolution on Israel and the case at the International Court of Justice that SA has undergone on Ukraine. In a matter of 30 months the ANC has gone from sending several Youth League members to observe sham elections in four Ukrainian provinces that Russia illegally occupied to preparing to hosting president Volodymyr Zelensky on a working visit.

Ultimately, improved relations will depend on what SA offers the Trump White House, but it could and should be bilaterally beneficial.

• Schneidman is a former US deputy secretary of state for African affairs and chaired Covington & Burling's Africa practice.