AALIYA VAYEZ: SA’s rebalancing act — the UAE steps in as Washington bows out

Amid an evolving geopolitical landscape, SA is navigating a fragile moment in its relations with the US.

Once a key ally, Washington is now at odds with Pretoria on land reform, and its stance regarding the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza conflicts.

The US suspension of bilateral aid, expulsion of the SA ambassador and the imposition of 31% reciprocal tariffs, have deepened this rift.

The SA authorities have adopted a diplomatic approach to this situation, citing government’s desire for dialogue and stressing that trade wars will have broad-based consequences.

Concurrently, SA is pursuing a broader shift in its diplomatic and economic ties as it prioritises fostering partnerships with Brics members, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

An emerging axis within Brics 

On January 1 2024 the UAE officially joined Brics alongside Egypt, Ethiopia and Iran, bringing the bloc’s total membership to nine countries.

Currently, Brics represents nearly half of the world’s population and accounts for more than a third of global GDP, a powerful reflection of the shifting geopolitical landscape.

Abu Dhabi — long regarded as a close ally of Western powers in the Middle East — is now positioning itself as a significant investor and economic partner across Africa and emerging markets. 

For SA, improving relations with its Global South counterparts is premised on pragmatism. China and India are presently SA’s largest Brics trade partners, but trade between Pretoria and the UAE has grown significantly over the past 18 months. By October 2024, SA exports to the UAE amounted to $312m, while imports stood at $270m, resulting in a $42m trade surplus for Pretoria.

Overall, trade between the two countries now reaches $69.6m a month, reflecting a consistent upward trend and highlighting these increasingly important bilateral commercial ties.

Substantial investments have been undertaken by Emirati firms across key SA sectors. For instance, DP World, the Emirati state-owned port operator and logistics company based in Dubai, manages dry ports and logistics facilities in Durban, enhancing local freight capacity.

Masdar — an Abu Dhabi-based and state-supported renewable energy firm — has launched five wind energy projects through its subsidiary Infinity Power, which generate 624MW.

Infinity Power is now co-developing six solar PV projects with a total capacity of 1.28GW across the country. These efforts will improve SA’s generation capacity amid an ongoing energy crisis and support its objective to reduce coal-powered electricity dependence.

In September 2024 the UAE’s richest company, International Resources Holding, signed an agreement with the Public Investment Corporation to invest in rail infrastructure, green energy and underdeveloped mines. 

A balanced path forward 

These transactions and agreements are mutually beneficial to SA-UAE relations as they advance SA’s goals of promoting employment and competitiveness, while the UAE expands its international investment presence and regional influence.

Abu Dhabi and Dubai have become key platforms for African business operations, benefiting from their strategic location.

Leading SA commercial banks such as Standard Bank and Nedbank already have representative offices in the UAE, while Absa and Investec have announced their intention to establish operations there.

SA businesses operating in Dubai benefit from the emirate’s strong logistical networks, efficient administrative processes and attractive financial conditions. 

Ties between the two countries go well beyond trade and infrastructure. Tourism has emerged as a key area of growth, with passenger traffic between Dubai and Cape Town rising sharply in 2023, driven by renewed post-pandemic travel and contributing to the revival of SA’s tourism sector, which accounted for nearly 7% of GDP before Covid-19.

Cultural exchanges are also increasing, with SA expatriates playing an active role in Dubai’s diverse workforce and occasional co-operation on security matters during major events in the UAE.

By engaging across these broader dimensions the UAE has steadily expanded its soft power, a combination that aligns well with Pretoria’s current reform agenda, including initiatives such as Operation Vulindlela, which seeks to streamline regulation and improve public sector performance. 

Continental ambitions, global shifts 

The UAE’s foreign policy priorities — encompassing infrastructure, technology and strategic investment — align well with SA’s efforts to attract fresh capital and engage with partners beyond traditional Western institutions.

Abu Dhabi’s Brics membership will support pursuing these objectives, which is increasingly important as the US implements its America First agenda. In the near term, this strategy is likely to accelerate major initiatives in logistics, energy and real estate.

Looking ahead, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which aims to create a more integrated African market, will make the continent increasingly attractive to partners such as the UAE.

SA is seen as a gateway into Africa and will leverage this framework to improve to establish new avenues for co-operation with the UAE, particularly in support of regional development and cross-border investment across Africa. 

Within the broader Brics framework, co-operation between the UAE and SA is set to deepen, particularly in infrastructure and energy projects that align with both countries’ strategic goals. The key question is whether these partnerships will help anchor a more self-reliant African economy.

What is certain for now is that amid shifting diplomatic alignments the UAE has positioned itself as a compelling partner for a nation in search of renewed momentum, and that emerging dynamic may come to shape the next chapter of SA’s global engagement. 

• Vayez is a South African political analyst based in London.