GREG BECKER: What would a no-confidence vote against Ramaphosa mean for SA?

Many make a living by making predictions. Gamblers and poker players get the fastest feedback. Many are most affected by their pension fund managers, who put other people’s money where their mouth is — with the market keeping score.

On the face of it there is an alignment of interests, with the traders and investors both wanting to see high returns. But there is also a mismatch: investors bear the risks of poor investment choices directly, with traders only sharing the pain as a second-order effect in their bonus cheques and employment prospects.

Commentators seem to make definitive pronouncements and predictions more often than they should. This could be hubris on behalf of the talking heads, a consequence of a system where journalists selectively report the most juicy bits (because they are incentivised by clicks), or maybe journalists with editors acting in tandem who are nudged by their paymasters to promote a particular view or outlook, even when they know that this is not the full story.

One takeaway from the last national election was that the ANC lost power. Another is that the ANC, EFF and MK party collectively received 64.3% of the vote — a marginal decrease from the 68.3% the ANC and EFF received jointly in the 2019 election. Objectively, these three parties are close to each other on many dimensions of the ideological spectrum, with broadly similar positions regarding their support for black nationalism and redistributive economic policies. Their patrons also want to see sand thrown into the anti-corruption machinery and a share of the trough, which may not be motivations for some in the current GNU.

In 2024 many parties campaigned on a platform to remove the ANC. After the votes were counted many on that platform helped the ANC back into power, their stated rationale being that if they didn’t help President Cyril Ramaphosa the ANC would be forced to turn to the EFF and MK Party for the parliamentary seats it needed to govern. Some in the ANC were angling for this, but this would have necessitated a national government without Ramaphosa, who may be the biggest winner of the GNU so far and remains the individual with the most to lose if the current GNU falls apart.

The markets cheered on the GNU and overlooked the bleating surrounding the contentious cabinet position allocation, the ultimatums and bluster that surrounded the bills covering the still-unfunded National Health Insurance, the growth-damaging expropriation policy and the education bill, which sidesteps the real issues holding back education in SA. The GNU’s lack of cross-party discussion and consensus was highlighted by the recent budget shenanigans, where the Treasury painted itself into a corner by announcing increases to public-sector salaries and social grants without having nailed down support for its funding plans.

Has the GNU masked the reality that the ANC vision for SA is more in tune with that of the EFF and MK Party, and does this help explain why our president has presided over the adoption of strategies that undermine our already meagre economic growth prospects?

The airwaves are still filled with analogue TV signals and much politicking, with the ANC succession battle in full swing. Only a commentator without a reputation or track record to sully, a journalist looking for clicks or an editor with a narrative to sell, will tell you they know what will happen with certainty: nobody can really know.

How many foresaw Jacob Zuma defeating Thabo Mbeki in 2007, or Ramaphosa joining the Zuma ticket in 2012, or David Mabuza being the kingmaker in 2017, with his reward being the position of deputy president? The next ANC internal elections are in 2027, and are likely to throw up another surprise. Fikile Mbalula and Paul Mashatile would both like to see themselves as president before the end of the decade, and there are others with similar aspirations.

Ramaphosa may have survived a no-confidence vote in 2022, but if the current GNU fell apart could this trigger another no-confidence vote? And if so, who would support him and would it be enough?

Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction platform, offers a way for the market to collectively evaluate various questions, where participants back up their position with money. It rose to prominence at the recent US election, where billions were wagered on the outcome of that election.

The service covers many elections and political questions, and one can only wonder what the market price would be regarding Ramaphosa’s tenure as leader of the ANC or as SA president.

• Becker, a retired actuary and recently qualified maths teacher, is founder of MyTutor.chat.