FERGUS TURNER: SA’s G20 presidency — the fallacy of silver bullet thinking

When President Cyril Ramaphosa recently opened the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ meeting in Cape Town, he spoke about finding better ways to handle debt levels in developing countries, a fairer system and better frameworks for trade. It is an admirable agenda.

But considering that the finance ministers from some of the biggest economies (such as the US, China, Japan, Canada and the EU’s senior economic official) were absent, one must wonder: can G20 initiatives succeed without the buy-in from the world’s richest and most powerful nations right from the start? 

It is a tricky situation. And in such an environment, applying a systems thinking lens can be useful. Systems thinking gives us an intuitive way to describe complex matters and allows us to look at any issue holistically, not isolating it into parts, but viewing the interconnectedness of the players and the relationships involved.

Donella Meadows, a prominent systems thinker, defines a system as “an interconnected set of elements that is coherently organised in a way that achieves something”. She emphasises that systems are more than the sum of their parts, and their behaviour emerges from the relationships and interactions between those elements.

This begins to give us an inkling of how to see the G20 presidency as a part of a bigger whole. G20 members make up about two-thirds of the world’s population, about 85% of the world’s GDP and over 75% of global trade.

But without the commitment of the world’s biggest economies on side, this dwindles to closer to 30%. But how effective is the organisation anyway? Brazil held the G20 presidency in 2024, and critics are divided about how much was achieved to advance the cause of the Global South that year.

Storytelling as a way to understand each other

Systems storytelling takes this one step further. Storytelling is universally understood and a powerful way for us to understand each other, and a systems storytelling approach to the G20 offers us a powerful tool to recognise the narratives that interconnect about global economic systems and how they affect people and communities. Taking this approach can help us describe systemic phenomena — such as how financial regulation and policy changes can affect a farmer in a small rural community, for instance.

Storytelling facilitates empathy and encourages a mindshift change to allow new possibilities to emerge. It can show us how seemingly unrelated decisions can affect trade, social stability and environmental sustainability worldwide.

Systems storytelling provides a more holistic and dynamic perspective, enabling policymakers, businesses, and citizens to grasp the intended and unintended consequences of G20 actions.

Bringing in diverse voices and the ‘social economy unicorns’ 

For some, the format of the G20 itself is problematic. The way the G20 is made up and how nations are expected to negotiate and agree upon ways going forward is complex. There seems to be some suggestion that the G20 is another siloed, top-down executive discussion, similar to a Global South response to the G7.

With the aid of systems storytelling, we can turn that around and look at the G20 presidency from a problem understanding rather than a solution thinking view that can allow new solutions to emerge.

For this to work, however, it is crucial that the process is inclusive; outliers must be included, especially the “social economy unicorns”. These are the organisations and groups that have been making an impact on social and development issues, particularly in successfully addressing development goals.

There are a significant number of these institutions that focus on social impact over financial gains. Many, such as the Green Outcomes Fund or the Early Childhood Development Social Impact Bond Innovation Fund, focus on green finance or inclusive approaches to uplift communities and create employment or skills transfers and have been proven to effect real change. They have an invaluable perspective to bring.

The Green Outcomes Fund, which was launched in 2020 in collaboration with GreenCape and the World Wide Fund for Nature SA (WWF-SA), shows how collaborations can channel funds to initiatives that produce tangible outcomes and results. Their experience suggests that rather than throwing money into social entrepreneurship, the norms, standards and regulations that create barriers must be understood — and nudged. 

In the context of systems thinking, a “nudge” refers to a subtle, noncoercive intervention that influences behaviour by subtly changing the environment or presentation of choices, aiming to guide people towards more desirable outcomes without restricting their freedom of choice.

Having a voice is not enough, we need real agency

The benefit of hosting the G20 presidency gives SA a voice to drive conversations about African development. But the challenge remains for SA leadership: how to transform diplomatic visibility into tangible realities. 

In a complex situation, there is no silver bullet. No one idea or person can save us. Systems storytelling can help by highlighting interconnectedness, amplifying diverse voices, and considering synergies and trade-offs. This can foster a deeper understanding of the issues and promote holistic solutions. It can also improve risk management by identifying critical vulnerabilities.

Ultimately, systems storytelling can empower SA to navigate this complex terrain with greater empathy so we can optimise resources and build a more resilient and equitable future, reflecting the spirit of ubuntu and solidarity.

The process invites all of us, including activists and policymakers and all stakeholders participating in the G20, to create the story of impact in a way that inspires and motivates others to step up and contribute to the advocacy on behalf of the voices of ordinary people on the ground.

This will help ensure that those voices are heard on a higher level to create the kind of story of SA’s G20 presidency that not only has a good ending but will live on and be told again and again in future.

• Turner is programme lead for the Systems Justice Innovation portfolio at the Bertha Centre for Social Innovation & Entrepreneurship at the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business.