TK POOE: SA faces a stark choice as the world reorganises into competing blocs

The rise of the “America First” doctrine and fractures in the global order demand a strategic reassessment of SA’s foreign and economic policies. As the US pursues isolationist policies, the EU stagnates and emerging powers such as China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) grow in influence, SA must look beyond reactive decision-making. It should seize the opportunity to address why it remains unprepared for global shifts that were clear a decade ago. 

Rather than advocating for “decoupling” from the West, this article calls for “strategic delinking” based on political economist Samir Amin’s framework. This does not mean isolation but reclaiming sovereignty through a radical restructuring of economic and foreign policy approaches. SA must move away from outdated frameworks and prioritise long-term national interests. 

The concept of delinking, outlined in Amin's Delinking: Towards a Polycentric World, is often misunderstood as economic decoupling. Decoupling is a reactive strategy aimed at reducing dependencies, as seen in the US-China trade war. In contrast, delinking is proactive, focusing on dismantling the neocolonial economic model that locks developing nations into raw material exports while importing expensive finished goods. 

China exemplifies strategic delinking by prioritising industrial self-sufficiency and technological advancement. However, SA remains locked in colonial-era trade patterns, exporting platinum and coal while importing machinery and pharmaceuticals. To achieve sovereignty and long-term economic independence SA must shift towards regional value chains and industrial self-reliance, not isolation. 

Critics argue that SA, preoccupied with political instability, cannot afford bold decision-making. The fragile coalition government, dominated by an uneasy ANC-DA relationship, struggles to commit to long-term strategies. The postponement of the national budget from February 19 to March 12 reinforces this perception. Yet uncertainty is not unique to SA; rather than paralysis, the country’s response to global shifts will define its trajectory. 

The US is retreating from multilateralism, weaponising tariffs and prioritising domestic industries. The EU, once a key economic pillar, faces structural decline, with Germany and France underperforming. These trends signal deeper systemic shifts. Over-reliance on these traditional partners is no longer tenable. SA must redefine its relationships, moving beyond passive adherence to Western rules and seizing opportunities to expand economic partnerships beyond the West. 

Strategic delinking does not entail severing ties but renegotiating them. While the US and EU remain influential, SA must engage selectively, ensuring that benefits outweigh any obligations. Economic diversification should focus on China and the Asean bloc, but with caution to avoid over-dependence. 

Strategic delinking requires introspection on why SA finds itself in a vulnerable position. The ANC government has failed to leverage state machinery for economic development, squandering opportunities over the past 15 years. Beyond governance failures, SA’s failure to confront its regional existential threat — the collapse of Zimbabwe under Zanu-PF — has deepened its vulnerability. The crisis in Zimbabwe has created instability with direct consequences for SA, yet the ANC has been slow to address this threat meaningfully. To operationalise delinking internal structural reforms are essential. Three critical decisions should be prioritised: 

• Phasing out provincial government structures. The current provincial system costs about R500bn annually, duplicating services and straining municipalities. Eliminating this tier could redirect resources to local service delivery and infrastructure, promoting greater governance efficiency. Revisiting the 2003 Machinery of Government document could help streamline government functions. 
• Revamping Eskom and Transnet. Instead of endless task teams and investigations, decisive action is needed to integrate these state-owned enterprises (SOEs) into a regional industrial strategy. Collaboration with SA’s financial sector could unlock capital and expertise, positioning Eskom and Transnet as catalysts for broader economic transformation. Eskom should focus on renewable energy to ensure energy security and job creation, while Transnet can drive industrial growth by improving infrastructure and supply chains. 
• Reforming foreign affairs for economic diplomacy. SA should streamline its 98 embassies, 14 consulates and two liaison offices, retaining only those that deliver clear economic value — such as trade, industry growth and alignment with development goals. Maintaining posts without tangible economic returns risks wasteful spending and dilutes national priorities. 

Balancing the risks — caution in delinking 

While strategic delinking offers an opportunity for greater economic independence, it must be approached with caution. There are risks, especially regarding over-dependence on China or the Asean countries. SA’s engagement with these regions must be carefully managed to not repeat the current historical position. Deals with rising Eastern powers (or diminishing Western ones) must be based on clear priorities such as local job creation, technology transfer and development of domestic industries, rather than merely facilitating capital inflows. In this regard, Asean states such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore should be studied and contextualised as it relates to how we move forward with critical raw minerals.

The world is reorganising into competing blocs, and SA faces a stark choice: remain a raw material supplier to volatile global markets, or embrace delinking to build a self-reliant, regionally integrated economy. This requires dismantling colonial trade patterns, confronting corruption and negotiating partnerships with China, Asean and the EU on SA’s terms. 

Strategic delinking is not isolationism; it is a renegotiation of globalisation. For it to succeed, SA must strengthen its internal governance systems, reform economic institutions and ensure foreign partnerships align with national priorities. Without a cohesive plan for delinking, SA risks remaining vulnerable to external shocks — US Maga policies, European recessions and Chinese slowdowns. The time for half-measures has passed; SA’s future depends on the courage to strategically delink and reclaim its sovereignty. 

• Pooe is a public policy specialist at the Wits School of Governance. He writes in his personal capacity.