TENDANI MANTSHIMULI: Championing Africa at G20 amid global protectionism and climate risks

Over the past decade the world’s leading nations under the umbrella of the G20 have met in emerging market countries a total of five times, or six if you count Turkey among those.

Through the presidency of nations such as Brazil they have all told the story of a rebalancing of the global economy in favour of the more populated and younger South, moving away from the northern climes that dominated the post-World War 2 era. 

In 2025, SA has to take that mantle and continue where India left off in its presidency, championing the Global South and urging international bodies to be more inclusive. We should do this while also focusing on putting Africa’s developmental agenda in the spotlight, a goal aided by the AU now having a seat at the table. The body’s inclusion hopefully paves the way for other African countries to have a seat in their own right at future summits.

While the SA economy is the smallest among the G20 economies, at about 0.6% of their total GDP, the country can use the stage afforded by hosting the summit to address Africa-specific issues such as debt, inequality and sustainability. Africa seeks greater equality in decision-making processes and a stronger voice in global institutions. 

It is critical that we find innovative solutions for Africa’s high debt levels, which are often in hard currencies, and explore new funding models for much-needed infrastructure development. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) can attract investment and address some of the continent’s infrastructure gaps. Africa must move beyond raw material exports and develop local industries to create jobs and reduce dependency on foreign markets. 

If African and other developing economies do not grow enough to create job security for their people, Western nations will continue seeing illegal migration as people seek better opportunities.

A persistent challenge has been uniting African leaders on a single agenda, and this year is likely to be no different. We have often lacked a unified front, worsened by conflicts and varying levels of economic development, which has undermined our global influence.

The AU should foster greater unity and a shared vision to strengthen Africa’s influence globally. SA has a critical role in championing this agenda, but must avoid being seen as dominating the continent’s narrative. This will be difficult to navigate given how the country has been dragged into the headlines regarding its land reform and transformation policies by the new US administration. 

Land reform policies, while crucial for addressing historical inequalities, have created uncertainty for foreign investors, particularly in sectors such as mining and agriculture. Poor communication about the policy has led to misconceptions, amplified by fear on social media of mass land expropriation.

SA should balance its commitment to the policy, while maintaining investor confidence and economic stability. 

While nationalist and protectionist policies have been on the rise, Donald Trump’s administration has escalated them to new levels. The spectre of a trade war looms large, threatening global trade relationships built over decades. In such a world, SA should accelerate efforts to expand exports to other markets such as the EU, the rest of Africa (through the African Continental Free Trade Area) and Asia, reducing its reliance on the US. If Africa negotiates as a bloc, it would help secure better trade partnerships outside the US. 

The US’s more aggressive stance on trade and diversity poses a significant challenge to this year’s G20 theme: “Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability”.

The new US foreign secretary has been critical of the theme, and climate change and diversity, equality and inclusivity in particular. 

Africa faces disproportionate effects of climate change, including droughts and floods, which threaten food security and migration patterns. Keeping climate change on the agenda, while anathema to the Trump administration, is something other G20 members must appreciate, particularly as it affects migratory patterns.

Addressing climate change and economic inequality is crucial to reducing migration pressures on Europe and the US. 

Developed nations should support Africa’s sustainability efforts to mitigate global climate risks and migration. Africa faces disproportionate climate change impacts and attendant economic instability and migration, despite contributing minimally to global carbon emissions. Without support from developed economies, African nations may struggle to implement the necessary strategies, worsening global climate risks and migration issues. 

Equality, sustainable development and climate change are not just African or emerging market issues, as evidenced by wildfires and floods in Europe and the US. Shying away from these issues does not make them disappear. The onus is on SA’s G20 presidency to keep these discussions going. 

Standing firm on these principles aligns with SA’s and the continent’s long-term interests, but may pose short-term economic challenges. 

• Mantshimuli is an economist and an executive in strategy support and governance at Liberty, the insurance and asset management arm of the Standard Bank Group.