RUFARO MAFINYANI: Decoding US-SA tensions and their global implications

What many observers miss in the US-SA tension is its strategic timing. The pressure campaign coincides precisely with SA’s emerging role as a key architect of the Global South’s new financial architecture.

Beyond the Brics bloc’s expansion, SA’s central bank has been quietly pioneering cross-border payment systems that could fundamentally alter African trade dynamics. While the Starlink broad-based-BEE clash captures headlines, the real concern lies in SA’s potential to accelerate African financial independence through its innovative clearing mechanisms and digital currency initiatives. 

Perhaps most telling is SA’s sophisticated orchestration of multilateral relationships. By simultaneously deepening ties with China through the Belt and Road Initiative, maintaining strategic dialogues with the EU on green technology transfer and expanding trade with other Brics nations, SA has created a complex web of interdependencies that limits the effectiveness of unilateral pressure. This multi-aligned approach has transformed traditional vulnerabilities into strategic advantages. 

SA’s International Court of Justice case against Israel represents more than a moral stance; it is a masterclass in strategic positioning. By grounding its challenge in international law rather than political rhetoric, SA has created a template for Global South nations to leverage international institutions effectively.

The legal framework chosen deliberately echoes precedents set by Western nations, making it difficult to dismiss without undermining the very international order the West seeks to defend. This approach forces Western powers to either defend their institutional frameworks or expose their selective application of rules-based order.

The government of national unity (GNU) delegation’s international mission occurs at a pivotal moment when land reform has become a proxy battle for competing development models.

The Expropriation Act’s significance extends beyond domestic policy: it represents a test case for whether African nations can implement structural economic changes while maintaining international investment appeal. What critics such as AfriForum have missed is that similar policies in Asian economies actually attracted long-term investment by demonstrating state capacity for complex economic management. 

The current tensions create unexpected leverage points for SA. Recent trade data reveals a telling shift: SA’s trade with Brics states grew by 28% in 2023, while EU trade volumes were stable, demonstrating the country’s successful balancing act.

US pressure has ironically strengthened SA’s credibility among emerging economies seeking policy independence. As Brazil’s finance minister noted a year ago: “SA’s resistance to unilateral pressure has created a blueprint for maintaining sovereign policy space while engaging constructively with all partners.” 

The effectiveness of this approach was demonstrated in recent multilateral negotiations, in which SA’s simultaneous engagement with multiple stakeholders created competitive pressure for better terms.

A senior Asian diplomat observed: “When one party’s pressure tactics result in improved offers from other partners, the original pressure becomes self-defeating.” This dynamic has already yielded results: new investment commitments from both Western and Eastern partners increased by 34% in late 2023, with notably improved terms for technology transfer. 

For policymakers, several nonobvious strategic imperatives emerge: 

• SA should reposition BBBEE requirements as innovation drivers that create unique market opportunities. The success of South Korean conglomerates demonstrates how local partnership requirements can evolve into globally competitive ventures.
• The Expropriation Act should be framed as a mechanism for unlocking new market value, drawing parallels to how Japanese post-war land reform catalysed its economic miracle by creating a broader base of economically active citizens.
• SA should develop asymmetric response capabilities in financial markets, particularly through the acceleration of alternative payment systems and digital trade platforms that reduce vulnerability to traditional pressure points. 

A critical yet underexplored dimension is SA’s emerging position in data governance and digital sovereignty. The country’s stance on data localisation and digital infrastructure ownership has profound implications for economic independence and national security. The GNU delegation to Washington should articulate how SA’s policies align with global trends towards data sovereignty while ensuring continued participation in global digital markets. 

SA’s leadership in African continental integration offers another layer of strategic depth. By accelerating implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area and strengthening regional financial integration, SA can build resilience against external pressure while creating new opportunities for economic growth.

The next 18-24 months are likely to see increased pressure through informal channels, particularly targeting SA’s financial sector and technology infrastructure. Recent diplomatic successes offer a template for response. When faced with pressure over its infrastructure choices in early 2024, SA’s strategic engagement with multiple partners led to a 40% improvement in financing terms across competing offers.

As one African central banker noted: “The key is maintaining multiple credible alternatives while demonstrating commitment to mutually beneficial outcomes.” 

The GNU delegation’s success hinges on recognising these evolved dynamics. Traditional pressure tactics become less effective when facing a partner who maintains multiple viable alternatives while demonstrating willingness to engage constructively with all sides. Recent evidence suggests that nations maintaining this balanced approach secured on average 30% better terms in international negotiations compared with those that aligned exclusively with any single bloc. 

Success for the GNU delegation lies in recognising that current tensions offer an opportunity to negotiate a new model of international engagement. This requires moving beyond traditional diplomatic responses to create innovative partnership frameworks that serve transformation goals and international interests. 

The real challenge is not managing US pressure, but rather seizing this moment to establish precedents for how Global South nations can pursue economic sovereignty while remaining engaged in global markets. “The question isn’t whether we can resist pressure, but whether we can transform pressure into partnership,” notes one senior diplomat.

This moment demands more than diplomatic finesse; it requires reimagining how nations navigate between domestic imperatives and international expectations. SA’s response could define a new playbook for economic diplomacy in an increasingly multipolar world, one in which resistance to pressure becomes a catalyst for innovation in international relations. 

• Mafinyani is risk advisory & financial modelling partner at DiSeFu, a specialised financial technology and risk advisory firm operating in the Sub-Saharan region.