MAKAU MUTUA: Why Raila Odinga’s election as AU Commission chair will benefit SA

The AU stands at a critical juncture in its history. Never has there been such an urgent demand for visionary leadership to steer the continent to its rightful place globally amid the ongoing geopolitical shifts and other challenges. 

One key institution that is critical in helping to realise this ambition is the AU’s secretariat, the AU Commission, which is charged with implementing the union’s daily activities. Its leadership plays an important role in advancing the AU’s agenda. 

The commission’s chair, who is in effect the CEO, legal representative and chief accounting officer, is elected for a four-year, renewable term by the assembly of heads of state and governments, the supreme policy and decision-making organ.

An election is scheduled for February 15 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, during the 38th ordinary session of the AU assembly. 

The current chair’s term ends this month, and the race for a replacement is between three East African candidates, one of whom is Kenya’s former prime minister, Raila Odinga. 

Experienced leader 

By running for office and offering to serve based on his extensive experience, knowledge, passion and vision premised on an eight-point agenda, Odinga’s election to chair the commission could bring significant changes not only in SA but also to Africa as a whole. 

Throughout his career, Odinga, a pan-Africanist and Afro-optimist, has distinguished himself as a dedicated advocate for peace, stability, economic emancipation and unity across the continent. This was most evident during his tenure as the AU high representative for infrastructure development. 

Among the projects he has backed which have directly affected SA is the North-South Corridor, which supports enhanced transportation networks between SA, Zambia and Tanzania.

Odinga is also keen on advancing as part of his agenda high-speed rail and digital infrastructure improvements, which have the potential to bring revolutionary changes to SA, the region’s economic hub.

The African Open Skies Policy, the broadband rollout of which is supported by Odinga, is in tandem with SA’s own technology agenda that seeks to bridge the digital divide and prepare the continent for the fourth industrial revolution.

By prioritising these initiatives, Odinga could help SA solidify its position as a leader in Africa’s digital transformation. 

Uniting Africa through integration 

The need for the AU to work towards African unity has increased in these uncertain times. If elected, Odinga’s leadership will enable the AU to fortify itself against Western domination as it supports decisions that uphold African interests.

Furthermore, his success in developing international connections with global financial bodies, including the World Bank, the IMF and the European Development Fund, qualifies him as a master diplomat for African advocacy worldwide. 

Odinga’s support of intra-African trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the strengthening of the regional economic blocs, including the Southern African Development Community (Sadc), attests to his commitment to Africa’s economic development.

The AfCFTA is the planet’s largest free-trade area, and could transform Africa’s economic structure through its 1.3-billion-strong market and combined GDP of more than $3.4-trillion.

Odinga maintains essential relationships with AfCFTA secretariat staff while working to remove trade barriers and make customs’ procedures easier to ensure the success of the agreement. 

The AfCFTA offers SA the chance to increase its market presence and establish new trading relationships with various African partners. Odinga would champion faster implementation and help SA to take advantage of expanded intra-African trade.

This is crucial now as developing economies require diplomatic intervention amid global trade tensions and protectionist policies that seek to exclude them from international markets. 

Odinga’s appointment would also be notable for SA because of his established background as a peace mediator. Through his mediation in the 2008 post-election conflict in Kenya, and in peace negotiations for South Sudan and Ethiopia, he was effective in reconciling opposing factions.

His leadership would enhance Southern Africa’s abilities to prevent and solve conflicts through his support for the African peace & security architecture. 

As an influential member of Sadc, SA will benefit from a more peaceful and stable continent. The democratic principles demonstrated by Odinga through his governance match SA’s political ideals, which establishes him as an organised partner dedicated to regional peacekeeping efforts. 

Human development and social inclusion 

His priority is human development, which he considers essential to drive Africa’s progress. He is keen to tap the potential of Africa’s demographic advantage — 70% of the continent's population is under 35 years old — insisting on investment in education, healthcare and skills development.

The social inclusion platform and gender equality efforts proposed by Odinga provide important guidance to SA, which faces significant youth unemployment with substantial inequalities. According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, in the second quarter of 2024 the number of employed people increased to 16.7-million from 14.1-million in the second quarter of 2020 (Covid-19 inception). 

Odinga’s support of women and disadvantaged communities over the years could serve SA by encouraging stronger social inclusion initiatives. As AU chair Odinga would help SA policymakers ensure that national initiatives match the broader goals of the organisation. 

He would lead Africa towards a new focus on uniting communities while advancing self-dependence and social development. It offers SA a chance to become a prominent force in championing continental development.

Through his focus on establishing regional collaboration, economic self-sufficiency and progress in human development, he would help SA, and the rest of Africa, to overcome obstacles and reach its maximum potential.

The time for Africa to rise is now, and Odinga is the leader to make it happen. 

• Prof Mutua, a former dean at Buffalo Law School, State University of New York, is SUNY distinguished professor and Margaret W Wang professor. He also served as chair of the board of advisers of the Rome-based International Development Law Organisation, and chaired the board of the Kenya Human Rights Commission.