SHANNON BERNHARDT: America First is an opportunity for Africa

US foreign assistance to Sub-Saharan Africa totalled $6.5bn in the past financial year covering, among other things, some of the most successful public health initiatives in history. The Trump administration’s decision to suspend foreign assistance programmes and gut the US Agency for International Development (USAID) will have ramifications for millions of lives, erode the US’s soft power on the continent and the decades of trust and goodwill that have been built.

One of the programmes the US has suspended is the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar), which is credited with saving more than 25-million lives in the region over two decades. In SA, Pepfar funding represents nearly 20% of the country’s annual HIV/Aids programme budget. This should raise concerns across the continent about the potential for reversing progress in tackling the Aids epidemic. Funding from Pepfar targets areas in SA that are heavily burdened by the HIV/Aids epidemic. 

While the relationship between much of the continent and the US has always been contentious, the policy of President Donald Trump and his surrogates to sow chaos and break things will place America firmly last in the race to secure the critical minerals and markets in Africa. More importantly, it could result in uncertainty on the continent. For the future sustainability of the continent African states will need to rethink their partnerships with each other as well as blocs such as Brics and the EU. 

While the effects of US foreign assistance are often positive and desirable, their core purpose is to project US power and influence globally, providing a soft landing for US businesses and creating opportunities to build security, economic and cultural partnerships. While this projection of power has not always been without friction, with many states viewing foreign assistance as foreign intervention, US support has been critical for building and supporting institutions on the continent. This conscious decision to erode power could pave the way for US adversaries to replace it and the swift, chaotic changes that result will erode trust in the US. Even if the US reverses these decisions and does not cancel foreign assistance, there can no longer be an expectation of consistency in US foreign policy.

The ramifications of this are that the norms of the international system, which have maintained largely stable, peaceful relations and growth of the global economy for the past 80 years, will be destabilised as one of the long-time guarantors of the international system is no longer willing to play according to the rules or as a referee. The potential is for a less stable world, a more fragile economy, and more self-interested and cynical players. 

Africans must protect and insulate themselves against this instability. The continent is already subject to the latest scramble for minerals by China, Russia, EU, US and others, which are needed to build future technologies. According to the SA Revenue Service, SA exported $15.3bn worth of minerals and metals last year alone. More overtly self-interested and aggressive competition for these resources has the potential to foster further discord on the continent.

We already have the blueprints to establish an equitable continental system that can protect its member states, support economic growth and development and resist aggressive action by external actors. These include robust financial, security, political and economic institutions. The only thing blocking this is the lack of trust between African states and the unwillingness to partner within the continent. Africa’s largest economies must demonstrate leadership and commitment to the continents’ institutions, including, most importantly, the African Continental Free Trade Area. 

Building trust within an international system with limited recourse where there is bad faith is challenging. States and continental institutions must establish achievable goals and objectives and work to achieve these, thus demonstrating commitment and good faith. These objectives should create mutual responsibilities and draw on the relative strengths of states and institutions. A prime example will be establishing responses to the gaps in funding created by the US withdrawal, for instance, in global public health or responses to the climate crisis. Relationship building by objective remains a valuable and successful tool in building trust where none now exists. 

This period of instability in the Global North is an opportunity to reset relationships on the continent, renew our regional and continental partnerships and build a degree of certainty in an increasingly uncertain world. The first step must be to develop solutions to the problems the US and others are no longer willing to solve. 

• Bernhardt is programme director at conflict resolution consultancy Concentric Alliance.