AMAKA ANKU: Africa needs a strong SA-Nigeria partnership

In Cape Town last week, President Cyril Ramaphosa hosted Bola Tinubu, his Nigerian counterpart, for the 11th session of the Nigeria-SA Bi-National Commission.

The relationship between the continent’s two most powerful countries has a somewhat turbulent history. Nigeria was a supporter of the anti-apartheid movements in SA, in which Ramaphosa and his political party, the ANC, played key roles. But relations chilled when a newly democratised SA campaigned for the release of human rights activist Ken Saro-Wiwa and others imprisoned by Nigerian military dictator Sani Abacha in the early 1990s.

The chill thawed when Nigeria transitioned to democratic rule in 1999. Then-presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Thabo Mbeki shared a pan-African vision that led to the replacement in 2002 of the Organisation of African Unity with the AU, which assumed the explicit mandate of accelerating economic development across the region. But over the past two decades, the two countries have grown apart again, with incidents such as xenophobic attacks against Nigerians in SA and Nigeria’s use of SA mercenaries in 2015 souring diplomatic relations.

Last week’s successful bilateral meeting presents an opening for a new chapter in relations between the two countries.

In the context of a shifting international order, the US and China are vying for the support of other countries as they seek to project power and influence. With more than 50 votes at key multilateral forums, and a large chunk of global population growth, Africa is well placed to benefit from this intensifying soft-power competition. Even a small bloc of African states working in concert can influence global thinking on development models and affect access to critical minerals.

But such African unity can be led only by the region’s most powerful countries.

Nigeria, the continent’s most populous country, wields significant cultural influence across the region and internationally. The country’s domestic film industry is the second largest in the world in terms of output, and the now globally popular Afrobeats music genre is dominated by Nigerian artists such as Burna Boy, Davido and Rema.

Though the Nigerian economy has hit a rocky patch after oil price shocks, it still has many growth sectors with strong potential, including telecoms, finance, agriculture, creative industries and retail. Fiscal and monetary reforms, if successful, could boost output over the next decade. That would increase the country’s economic leverage and complement its cultural influence. 

SA has comparatively much less cultural influence across the region. An unfortunate history of xenophobic violence targeting other Africans has created the impression that the country is out of touch with its African roots.

SA has also been stuck in a low-growth trap since the 2008 global financial crisis, with deep, racially based income and wealth inequalities that hamper its growth prospects. But it has greater geopolitical heft than Nigeria, owing to its much deeper and more mature financial markets. It is already an important actor on the global stage, with membership in the Group of Twenty (G20) and Brics, and it can marshal more financial resources than Nigeria. 

If SA and Nigeria can combine their strengths and compensate for each other’s weaknesses, they can rally African countries behind common positions on climate policy, trade, and regional security. Ramaphosa and Tinubu took the first steps towards such collaboration during their joint press conference on December 3 after the Bi-National Commission.

Nigeria is seeking SA’s support for its bid for full membership of the G20, which SA will host next year. Ramaphosa promised to make it easier for Nigerian investors and tourists to do business in SA through a simplified visa application process. And the two leaders agreed to leverage their combined natural resources to promote green industrialisation.

The continent will be watching to see if they can fulfil the promise of broader continental leadership.

• Anku is Africa practice head at Eurasia Group.