SUNIL SEWMOHAN: SA must find its own path to EV future

It is widely acknowledged that electric vehicles (EVs) constitute the biggest revolution in motoring in more than a century.

McKinsey projects that worldwide demand for EVs will grow six-fold by 2030, with annual unit sales shifting gear from 6.5-million to about 40-million over that period. 

We need to understand the ways in which the SA market differs from our correlative markets, especially where trucks and SUVs are concerned, and the extent to which EVs will supplant vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs).

Pricing is a challenge, but President Cyril Ramaphosa told delegates at Naamsa’s recent SA Auto Week event that the government of national unity planned to introduce tax rebates, subsidies and incentives for EV production in SA.

That would be hugely helpful, and automakers will watch developments keenly, but original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) must also invest in educating consumers about EVs and what they can and can’t do, and the ideal application in real-world driving.

The need for this became apparent in an independent study commissioned by Ford, which found prevalent “myth-conceptions” giving some potential buyers pause for thought.

This research highlights the need for continued efforts to educate the public about EVs, address concerns about cost, range and infrastructure, and promote the benefits of electric mobility.

Ford’s study found that 43% of SA respondents are considering an EV purchase in the next five years; that 71% of respondents would be more likely to buy an EV that had greater towing capability; and 70% want off-road capability and capacity for towing. Most would opt for a hybrid vehicle.   

Another McKinsey study suggests that OEMs can improve the profitability of battery-electric-vehicle profitability by reducing structural costs. This requires a focus on research and design excellence, flexible manufacturing and value-chain integration. 

Despite the global momentum of EV uptake, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are not the top choice for many SA consumers. If purchase costs were not a barrier, just over a third of respondents to a Ford survey indicated they would select a BEV as their next vehicle. 

By comparison, half would opt for a hybrid-electric vehicle, and 43% would choose a plug-in hybrid. Traditional petrol and diesel engines still hold significant appeal, with 23% and 15% of respondents respectively preferring them.

Interestingly, while immediate adoption is modest there is a strong indication of future interest. Nearly 30% of respondents to Ford’s SA survey are open to making the switch within a year. Moreover, two-thirds believe they fit the profile of an EV owner now, with an additional 25% seeing themselves as EV owners in the future. 

South Africans hold overwhelmingly positive views towards EVs and those who drive them. Two-thirds of the respondents to Ford’s survey in SA have developed a more favourable opinion of EVs over the past year.

This growing positivity extends into personal spheres: nearly 80% would be more inclined to date someone who owns an EV, and 77% believe arriving in an EV makes for a better first impression. EV owners are often described as forward-thinking, environmentally conscious and tech-savvy.

These perceptions align with the attributes many South Africans associate with EVs themselves — fun to drive, cool, sporty, sleek and aspirational.

A significant majority prefers EVs over ICE vehicles for both special events and daily activities, indicating a recognition of the lifestyle and status that EVs can confer. Automakers can capitalise on this through education and providing opportunities for experiential learning to add impetus to consumer readiness to adopt EVs. 

Incentives

EV safety and reliability are incentives for South Africans. A substantial 85% believe EVs are just as safe as petrol-engine vehicles, and nearly two-thirds think EVs are safer in accidents. Concerns about reliability are low, with fewer than 20% perceiving EVs as unreliable. In addition, half of the respondents would choose an EV over a petrol-powered vehicle in emergency situations, indicating trust in the technology’s dependability. 

Environmental benefits and cost savings emerge as key motivators for potential EV adoption. Over half of the respondents recognise that EVs are better for the environment and can lead to savings in the long run. The allure of the latest technological features also plays a significant role, with 41% citing it as a benefit of EV ownership.

However, perceptions about long-term costs are mixed. While 35% believe EVs are less expensive over time, 42% think long-term maintenance costs are higher than those for petrol/diesel vehicles. This underscores the need for transparent information about the true cost of EV ownership. 

Performance factors such as acceleration are also influencing perceptions. More than two-thirds believe EVs offer better acceleration than ICE-powered vehicles. Although only 10% mentioned superfast acceleration as a benefit, this aspect contributes to the overall positive image of EVs as fun and sporty vehicles. 

However, infrastructure — and perhaps as importantly, perceptions around it — poses a significant barrier to EV adoption in SA. About 70% of respondents cited load-shedding and insufficient charging infrastructure as factors affecting their decision to switch to an EV. The leading concern, mentioned by nearly half of the respondents, is inadequate infrastructure and lack of charging stations.

Complex landscape

Limited range and power grid concerns also feature prominently, although awareness of existing charging infrastructure is low. Nearly half of the respondents are unaware of any charging stations near their homes, and an additional 15% are uncertain.

Public places such as service stations and shopping centres are preferred locations for charging stations, but the prevailing preference is for charging at home or work, as indicated by 95% of respondents. 

The research highlights a complex landscape for EV adoption in SA. While positive perceptions are growing, significant challenges remain — particularly around infrastructure and consumer education.

To accelerate the shift towards electrification, stakeholders must address these barriers head-on. Investment in charging infrastructure is critical. Expanding the network of accessible and reliable charging stations will alleviate concerns about range and convenience.

Simultaneously, initiatives to stabilise the power grid and mitigate load-shedding would enhance consumer confidence in EV viability. Education campaigns are equally important. Correcting misconceptions and increasing opportunities for South Africans to experience EVs first-hand would bridge the knowledge gap and foster a more informed consumer base, ready to embrace electric mobility. 

Transportation revolution

SA is at the cusp of a transportation revolution. The positive attitudes towards EVs and recognition of their environmental benefits are encouraging signs. By addressing infrastructure challenges and enhancing consumer education, SA can accelerate its journey towards a more sustainable, electrified future. The road ahead may be challenging, but with concerted effort, the destination is within reach. 

Those of us who live and work here are reminded constantly that SA is globally unique and that copy-and-paste solutions applicable elsewhere may not work here. The revolution will be electrified, but on our country’s own terms.

• Sewmohan is executive director of product marketing at Ford SA.