ROCHELLE MAPHOTO: Trump’s comeback heralds harder US approach to Africa

Donald Trump’s comeback victory in Wednesday's US presidential election, read with the 2015 amendment to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) introducing a system of “structural attrition”, threatens the participation of Sub-Saharan Africa in the unilateral trade preferential programme.

Agoa was initiated by president Bill Clinton in the early 2000s to support the rapid growth and development of Sub-Saharan Africa through integrating and liberalising the US market for the region’s exports.

What was intended to be an act of solidarity and altruism by the US to assuage the ills of colonialism and entrenched economic protectionism of the US markets, now seems likely to become a quid pro quo arrangement, especially in light of the new “out of cycle” review clause.

The out-of-cycle review mechanism allows for any party, including lobby groups on issues that threaten their interests in Africa (climate change or internal security, for example) to petition the president to “threaten to withdraw or suspend Agoa benefits or remove the country altogether” in instances where US interest either on a domestic or related issue, such as on compliance with tariffs, is met with resistance by an African participant.

We’ve already seen how the US poultry industry succeeded in applying pressure on SA to conform or risk losing its Agoa benefits. The cordial and co-operative relationship SA has with Beijing could be an issue in future. With the recent rise in tensions and escalation on major geopolitical tensions in the globe, SA could soon find itself in limbo due to the ever-changing US foreign policy on Africa.

A major concern the US has with SA relates to tariffs, which US companies believe tilt the scale in favour of the EU. That could mean demands that the playing field be levelled, especially since SA has already concluded a reciprocal free trade agreement with the EU.

The EU has signed 41 economic partnership agreements with 41 African countries, including SA, placing US exports to Africa at a significant risk of decline. The US argues that it has a “moral right” to advance its own trade and investment in Africa, including products such as cosmetics, plastics, textiles, trucks, agricultural exports and agricultural machinery.

End of an era

The era of altruistic preferential treatment on trade and investment on the part of the US is fading — and a more robust Trump administration is set to unleash a colder-faced foreign diplomacy on Africa. Rising trade hostility between China and the US could make Africa the battleground, more so since the focal point of Trump’s strategy is “countering China’s commercial, security and political influence in Africa.” He has characterised China’s presence in Africa as “predatory” and accuses Beijing of using debt to hold African states captive and subservient.

We are yet to see how these tensions between Beijing and Washington will unfold, but SA would be well advised to exercise extreme caution to preserve its continued and uninterrupted participation in the new cycle of Agoa. Pretoria will have to skilfully navigate this treacherous terrain if it is to keep everyone happy, especially since SA considers both hegemons to be trading allies and partners.

The US still bemoans China having overtaken it as Africa’s largest trading partner as early as 2009. We anticipate Washington will start forging a new bipartisan framework for deepening commercial ties with Africa that is legally enforceable.

Maphoto is assistant director with the directorate for strategic institutional partnerships in the department of agriculture, land reform and rural development.