NICHOLAS STEIN: Quilter positioned for growth in UK
Wealth space player an attractive investment due to a growing market
21 October 2024 - 05:00
byNicholas Stein
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Quilter’s head office in London. Picture: SUPPLIED
Quilter, formerly known as Old Mutual Wealth before it was spun off from Old Mutual Plc in 2018, is a key player in the UK wealth space. Its operations span a tied adviser force; an investment platform servicing its tied agents as well as independent financial advisers; an investment multimanager; and a high-net-worth wealth offering.
We believe Quilter is an attractive investment due to the market it plays in being a structurally growing one, it being well placed to win and an attractive valuation.
Contrasting the SA pension fund landscape with that of the UK is instructive, especially given that 30 years ago SA’s system was dominated by defined benefit funds, closely mirroring that of the UK now. Over this period in SA, the market (excluding the dominant Government Employees Pension Fund) aggressively shifted to defined contribution funds.
About 80% of SA private pension funds operate as defined contribution funds. This move created a headwind to companies servicing the defined benefit market, namely traditional life insurers; and a tailwind to those servicing the defined contribution segment, such as platforms, asset managers and multimanagers.
In the UK about £1.1-trillion in pension fund liabilities is in defined benefit funds, while about £600bn is in defined contribution funds. Of note is that 90% of defined benefit funds are closed to new members. Assuming the overall national level of pension fund savings as a percentage of GDP holds, one can expect a materially larger defined contribution market in the next decades.
The introduction of auto-enrolment regulations has further expanded the pension market by increasing the number of employees participating in pension funds. This creates a far larger asset pool for Quilter to tap into. While Quilter doesn’t operate directly within the defined contribution pensions space, many individuals consolidate their various pension pots as they approach retirement — a stage on which Quilter plays a pivotal role.
A further quirk of the UK market was that up until 2015 retirees were largely compelled to purchase fixed annuities at retirement. For Quilter, this primarily means engaging with individuals during the accumulation phase of their pensions journey. With the 2015 Pensions Freedoms announcement, government upended the investment landscape, scrapping this rule and giving individuals almost complete freedom in their decumulation product choices.
This opened up the floodgate to decumulation flows, with people switching from fixed annuities to living annuities and other flexible drawdown products. This, with the associated increase in advice complexity, has been an immense tailwind to Quilter’s business.
Enduring
We regard both of these strong trends as secular and enduring, which should cause above-average flows to the industry for decades rather than years. Flows activity in the UK wealth space has slowed down markedly in the past three years. It is our contention that the slowdown represents a hiccup rather than the end of the secular growth story, which is a large contributor to Quilter’s attractiveness as an investment.
The years after 2021 were particularly challenging for UK consumers as inflation surged from less than 0.5% to more than 11%, and interest rates climbed from near 0% to above 5% between 2021 and 2023. This squeeze on discretionary spend forced consumers to prioritise survival and mortgage payments, significantly reducing wealth flows. High interest rates created an additional headwind, with cash offering a competitive 5% return, prompting many to park their money in the bank rather than invest in equities.
Guaranteed annuity pricing was also attractive to retirees, diverting money away from living annuities towards fixed annuities. However, as the interest rate cycle begins to ease and consumer finances recover, we expect a rebound in wealth flows, with growth trends gradually returning to pre-2021 levels.
We focus here on the UK wealth platform market, Quilter’s key profit driver and largest source of assets under management. Quilter was one of the first players in the UK wealth platform space. This provided it with scale and incumbency, but also came with the burden of an outdated platform that was creaking at the seams. Quilter’s initial attempt to shift to modernise its platform was famously aborted at a cost of £330m, before a new provider was selected.
Gained share
The second attempt ultimately succeeded. Since early 2021 when the new platform became operational, Quilter has gained meaningful market share. Given the time it takes to convince advisers to shift, coupled with a number of large peers struggling now, we see Quilter building on this initial momentum and continue to take further market share.
Quilter CEO Steven Levin. Picture: SUPPLIED
In addition to a new platform, Quilter also has a relatively new CEO in Steven Levin, who we rate highly and have been impressed with his operational delivery in a short time.
Quilter has also shed a number of noncore divisions to go “all-in” on the UK wealth management space. We expect them to benefit from the increased focus.We believe many market participants have yet to shift their mindset from the low flows environment during the so-called cost-of-living crisis to the more buoyant environment we foresee in future.
UK asset prices in general are depressed. The likely reasons for this include a tougher economic experience due to macro factors such as Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as poor sentiment towards the UK on the back of Brexit.
Quilter provides a good example of a company that can grow strongly for a long time despite the overarching country narrative. We believe Quilter offers very good value at a 16 times price-to-earnings ratio, and we anticipate strong earnings growth.
Should the market fail to fully recognise its value Quilter presents an attractive acquisition opportunity for any player looking to enter the fast-growing UK wealth management space, due to its substantial presence across all key segments of the value chain.
• Stein is portfolio manager at Coronation Fund Managers.
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
NICHOLAS STEIN: Quilter positioned for growth in UK
Wealth space player an attractive investment due to a growing market
Quilter, formerly known as Old Mutual Wealth before it was spun off from Old Mutual Plc in 2018, is a key player in the UK wealth space. Its operations span a tied adviser force; an investment platform servicing its tied agents as well as independent financial advisers; an investment multimanager; and a high-net-worth wealth offering.
We believe Quilter is an attractive investment due to the market it plays in being a structurally growing one, it being well placed to win and an attractive valuation.
Contrasting the SA pension fund landscape with that of the UK is instructive, especially given that 30 years ago SA’s system was dominated by defined benefit funds, closely mirroring that of the UK now. Over this period in SA, the market (excluding the dominant Government Employees Pension Fund) aggressively shifted to defined contribution funds.
About 80% of SA private pension funds operate as defined contribution funds. This move created a headwind to companies servicing the defined benefit market, namely traditional life insurers; and a tailwind to those servicing the defined contribution segment, such as platforms, asset managers and multimanagers.
In the UK about £1.1-trillion in pension fund liabilities is in defined benefit funds, while about £600bn is in defined contribution funds. Of note is that 90% of defined benefit funds are closed to new members. Assuming the overall national level of pension fund savings as a percentage of GDP holds, one can expect a materially larger defined contribution market in the next decades.
The introduction of auto-enrolment regulations has further expanded the pension market by increasing the number of employees participating in pension funds. This creates a far larger asset pool for Quilter to tap into. While Quilter doesn’t operate directly within the defined contribution pensions space, many individuals consolidate their various pension pots as they approach retirement — a stage on which Quilter plays a pivotal role.
Quilter has a strong third quarter, but flags UK budget concerns
A further quirk of the UK market was that up until 2015 retirees were largely compelled to purchase fixed annuities at retirement. For Quilter, this primarily means engaging with individuals during the accumulation phase of their pensions journey. With the 2015 Pensions Freedoms announcement, government upended the investment landscape, scrapping this rule and giving individuals almost complete freedom in their decumulation product choices.
This opened up the floodgate to decumulation flows, with people switching from fixed annuities to living annuities and other flexible drawdown products. This, with the associated increase in advice complexity, has been an immense tailwind to Quilter’s business.
Enduring
We regard both of these strong trends as secular and enduring, which should cause above-average flows to the industry for decades rather than years. Flows activity in the UK wealth space has slowed down markedly in the past three years. It is our contention that the slowdown represents a hiccup rather than the end of the secular growth story, which is a large contributor to Quilter’s attractiveness as an investment.
The years after 2021 were particularly challenging for UK consumers as inflation surged from less than 0.5% to more than 11%, and interest rates climbed from near 0% to above 5% between 2021 and 2023. This squeeze on discretionary spend forced consumers to prioritise survival and mortgage payments, significantly reducing wealth flows. High interest rates created an additional headwind, with cash offering a competitive 5% return, prompting many to park their money in the bank rather than invest in equities.
Guaranteed annuity pricing was also attractive to retirees, diverting money away from living annuities towards fixed annuities. However, as the interest rate cycle begins to ease and consumer finances recover, we expect a rebound in wealth flows, with growth trends gradually returning to pre-2021 levels.
We focus here on the UK wealth platform market, Quilter’s key profit driver and largest source of assets under management. Quilter was one of the first players in the UK wealth platform space. This provided it with scale and incumbency, but also came with the burden of an outdated platform that was creaking at the seams. Quilter’s initial attempt to shift to modernise its platform was famously aborted at a cost of £330m, before a new provider was selected.
Gained share
The second attempt ultimately succeeded. Since early 2021 when the new platform became operational, Quilter has gained meaningful market share. Given the time it takes to convince advisers to shift, coupled with a number of large peers struggling now, we see Quilter building on this initial momentum and continue to take further market share.
In addition to a new platform, Quilter also has a relatively new CEO in Steven Levin, who we rate highly and have been impressed with his operational delivery in a short time.
Quilter has also shed a number of noncore divisions to go “all-in” on the UK wealth management space. We expect them to benefit from the increased focus. We believe many market participants have yet to shift their mindset from the low flows environment during the so-called cost-of-living crisis to the more buoyant environment we foresee in future.
UK asset prices in general are depressed. The likely reasons for this include a tougher economic experience due to macro factors such as Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as poor sentiment towards the UK on the back of Brexit.
Quilter provides a good example of a company that can grow strongly for a long time despite the overarching country narrative. We believe Quilter offers very good value at a 16 times price-to-earnings ratio, and we anticipate strong earnings growth.
Should the market fail to fully recognise its value Quilter presents an attractive acquisition opportunity for any player looking to enter the fast-growing UK wealth management space, due to its substantial presence across all key segments of the value chain.
• Stein is portfolio manager at Coronation Fund Managers.
JSE’s largest investor on hunt for new CEO
WATCH: PSG delivers 28% rise in interim earnings
New era for JSE in biggest shake-up
Clientele chair warns GNU optimism will not dent joblessness
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Most Read
Related Articles
Quilter has a strong third quarter, but flags UK budget concerns
Why Quilter likes to keep it local
Quilter benefits from strong channel flows and cost savings
Published by Arena Holdings and distributed with the Financial Mail on the last Thursday of every month except December and January.