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Picture: GETTY IMAGES/SEAN GALLUP
Picture: GETTY IMAGES/SEAN GALLUP

With a number of international climate centres reporting that 2024 has so far been the warmest on record for the planet, it is clear that we are entering a momentous juncture in global efforts to reduce climate change. It is everyone’s job to make sure we change the current course and avert a climate disaster for future generations. SA, as the leading greenhouse gas emitter on the continent and 14th largest in the world, has an important role to play in putting a stop to global warming.

In this regard, recent legislative and regulatory reforms introduced by national government, including the Climate Change Act and draft sectoral emissions target for key sectors, must be welcomed. Achieving the department of forestry, fisheries and the environment’s short-term target of a 4.5-million tonne reduction of carbon emissions and 18-million cumulative tonnes by 2030, is critical if we hope to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Realising these 2030 targets is crucial to ensuring the future sustainability of several greenhouse gas-emitting economic sectors in the country, including the iron, steel and aluminium exporting industries, which are heavily reliant on Eskom’s coal-fired power grid. This is because they will be forced to comply with carbon tariffs being introduced by key trading partners, including the EU and US.

The department’s draft sectoral emissions target report has highlighted that the local transport sector is a major greenhouse gas contributor, accounting for 12% of the country’s carbon emissions. The report has set a target of reducing CO2e emissions in the sector by 4.5-million tonnes by 2030 and has outlined a range of solutions to achieve this goal, including an increase in electric vehicles (EVs) on our roads over the next few years.

However, as SA ramps up its EV adoption in line with global and national climate change commitments, it is vital to acknowledge that our national grid is not equipped to sustain the level of electricity required to charge an entire fleet of EVs.

Our research shows that by 2036 the projected energy demand for EVs will be nearly 10,000 GWh per year, which represents a significant amount of energy. For context, over the past three years the Arnot Power Station in Mpumalanga has averaged an annual production of 9,675 GWh. This implies that within the next 12 years SA would in effect need the equivalent of a new power station dedicated solely to meeting the energy demands of electric mobility. Moreover, the energy requirements for e-mobility are expected to continue increasing beyond this point.

Most critically, because the grid is largely powered by coal, relying solely on the national power network means we risk exacerbating the CO2e emissions problem instead of reducing it. To illustrate, an average diesel car emits 8.6 tonnes of CO2e per year, while a petrol car emits 4.4 tonnes annually. In comparison, an EV charged from the SA grid indirectly emits 5.8 tonnes of CO2e per year. In other words, simply shifting from petrol to grid-powered EVs will actually worsen our transport carbon emissions problem.

To address this, it is important that any strategy to increase the number of EVs on our roads also includes a plan to develop sustainable, green infrastructure to power these vehicles. Zero Carbon Charge is currently developing 120 off-grid, solar-powered EV charging stations, which could play a vital role in helping SA meet its CO2e reduction targets.

Every EV charged at these stations will be entirely carbon-free, with the entire network having the capacity to facilitate the charging of over 3-million electric vehicles each year. In total, we predict that over 1-million tonnes of CO2e will be reduced from EVs charged on our charging network between 2026 and 2030. 

If we manage to entirely migrate the vehicle fleet currently registered on government’s eNatis site to EVs charged by renewably produced electricity, we may be able to reduce the country’s carbon emissions by over 97-million tonnes of CO2e per year.

This project is a large-scale, national carbon emission reduction initiative that can contribute towards our country’s carbon reduction targets. As a localisation of energy supply initiative, it can contribute towards a commensurate saving in forex spent on imported single use energy stores such as petrol and diesel.

If government is serious about addressing climate change it needs to strengthen its support for green projects. It must reduce the red tape that currently hinders private investors rapidly developing renewable energy projects such as off-grid charging EV charging stations.

To ensure the transition to electric vehicles truly supports SA’s net-zero goals we must act decisively and swiftly. By doing what we can today we can meet our climate commitments and protect the environment for our country’s future generations.

• Roux is executive chair of Zero Carbon Charge.

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